Why Removing Screens From Fitness Trackers Made Them 88% More Popular: 'If It Has a Screen, It's a Watch'

Screenless fitness trackers surged 88% between 2024 and 2025, driven by demand for longer battery life and 24/7 health monitoring. Whoop raised $575 million in March, Oura raised over $900 million, and both are now valued above $10 billion, while Google launched its own $100 screenless Fitbit Air shipping May 26. The trend underscores strong consumer appetite for minimalist wearables and could support further share gains for screenless device makers.

Analysis

The important signal here is not that wearables are growing, but that the category is fragmenting into two distinct purchase motives: compliance/utility versus self-expression. Screenless devices convert the product from a mini-phone into an always-on health subscription, which should improve retention, reduce feature bloat, and make recurring software/services monetization more defensible. That is structurally better for category economics than one-time hardware upgrades, because the marginal value shifts from display-driven specs to data lock-in and habit formation.

For GOOGL, the move into a screenless form factor is a low-cost way to buy relevance in a subcategory where the incumbent advantage is less about hardware and more about distribution, branding, and app integration. The second-order effect is defensive: if screenless devices keep pulling share from smartwatch spending, Apple’s wearables ecosystem loses some incremental attach potential even if the installed base remains sticky. That does not threaten AAPL’s core thesis, but it can cap upside in wearables services/ancillary hardware demand over the next 6-18 months.

The risk to the trade is that this is still an early-adopter aesthetic cycle, not yet proven mass-market behavior. If users tire of paying premium prices for intentionally constrained hardware, the category can revert quickly toward watches with richer interfaces, especially if Apple adds better battery life and health features in the next refresh cycle. The key catalyst window is the next two product cycles: if screenless devices maintain momentum through holiday demand and app engagement data, this becomes a multi-year form-factor shift; if not, valuation multiples on the private names will likely compress first.

Consensus is probably underestimating how much the absence of a screen reduces replacement urgency and improves gross margin durability. Fewer moving parts, simpler industrial design, and longer battery life can lower support costs and improve net promoter scores, which is more valuable than the headline hardware ASP. The market may be over-crediting near-term growth while underpricing the possibility that this turns into a high-retention, low-churn subscription bundle rather than a device fad.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a tactical long GOOGL position for 3-6 months: the company is well-positioned to monetize the screenless trend with limited balance-sheet risk; upside is capped but asymmetric if the new device validates category demand.
• Use AAPL as a relative short vs GOOGL into the next wearables cycle: pair long GOOGL / short AAPL on the thesis that screenless products siphon incremental share from the watch upgrade path without threatening Google’s optionality.
• Avoid chasing the private-market names at current levels; if accessible via secondary or crossover exposure, size small and require evidence of retention/renewal data before adding—valuation is now more dependent on engagement than shipment growth.
• For public-market expression, buy 6-12 month out-of-the-money GOOGL calls to define downside while retaining upside to a successful category launch; risk/reward improves if implied vol remains muted ahead of the product ship date.
• Monitor AAPL wearables commentary over the next two earnings calls; if management signals slowing attach or longer replacement cycles, rotate from neutral to underweight on the stock into strength.