Two AI Stocks, Two Price Targets: What's Next for AMD and Palantir

A 24/7 Wall St model targets Palantir (PLTR) at $161.23 (+20.57%) and AMD at $605.85 (+10.53%), each with 90% confidence and a BUY stance. The bullish PLTR case cites Q1 2026 revenue of $1.63B (+84.7% YoY), adjusted EPS of $0.33 beating estimates for the eighth straight quarter, and raised full-year guidance to 71% growth, but flags valuation risk (trailing P/E ~143). The AMD bull case rests on accelerating Data Center momentum—Q1 revenue $10.25B (+37.85%) with Data Center at $5.78B (+57%)—though upside is tempered by China export uncertainty and NVIDIA’s accelerator dominance.

Analysis

AMD is the cleaner way to express the current AI capex wave because it monetizes already-committed infrastructure spend, but the market will quickly shift from "demand exists" to "can they ship it?" The biggest bottleneck is not enthusiasm; it is advanced packaging, wafer allocation, and rack-level integration. That means upside can be pulled forward on order chatter, then stall if delivery timing slips, while second-order beneficiaries sit upstream in TSMC, AMAT, ASML, and memory supply rather than in the chip name alone.

PLTR is a different factor: it is a long-duration multiple asset that trades on the credibility of sustained growth plus operating leverage. At this valuation, the main risk is not a catastrophic miss, but normalization—if growth steps down even modestly or stock-based comp keeps diluting per-share economics, the multiple can compress faster than earnings can catch up. That makes PLTR more vulnerable to a drawdown during any broad risk-off in software, even if fundamentals remain strong.

The consensus seems to be lumping both names into one AI bucket, which is wrong. AMD has a 1-3 month catalyst path tied to shipment conversion, export policy, and customer rollout cadence; PLTR’s key test is 6-18 months of commercial durability versus a premium that already assumes near-perfect execution. Falsifiers: AMD MI450 timing slips, China restrictions tighten, or customer concentration becomes visible; PLTR U.S. commercial growth falls materially below the current run-rate or FCF guidance stops expanding.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long AMD on pullbacks, but express it as a 1-3 month trade vs. SMH or NVDA rather than an outright momentum chase; target upside is tied to shipment conversion, not headlines. Cut if MI450 timing slips or China export restrictions widen.
• Use AMD call spreads instead of stock if buying strength now: upside participation with less damage if the stock has already discounted near-term design wins. Best entry is after a post-run consolidation, not into a vertical move.
• Treat PLTR as a tactical long only on weakness; if already held, consider monetizing part of the premium with covered calls. The thesis breaks if growth decelerates or SBC remains elevated enough to cap per-share FCF leverage.
• Relative-value watch: long PLTR / short SNOW only if you want to own the software name with stronger growth and margins, but keep sizing modest because the valuation gap can narrow faster on any broad AI software de-rating.
• Set an alert on ORLCF/META capex commentary and TSMC advanced-packaging capacity; those are the best near-term tell for whether AMD’s demand is becoming actual revenue or just order-book theater.