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Market Impact: 0.75

3 Reasons Why There Will Be No Ceasefire In Iran

Geopolitics & WarEnergy Markets & PricesTrade Policy & Supply ChainCommodities & Raw MaterialsInvestor Sentiment & PositioningMarket Technicals & FlowsSanctions & Export Controls

Tuesday 8:00 PM is the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait; markets are clinging to hope of a ceasefire. The article argues a ceasefire is structurally unlikely, implying elevated risk-off positioning, potential disruptions to oil and shipping flows, and higher volatility and energy risk premia.

Analysis

Tuesday 8:00 PM is the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait; markets are clinging to hope of a ceasefire. The article argues a ceasefire is structurally unlikely, implying elevated risk-off positioning, potential disruptions to oil and shipping flows, and higher volatility and energy risk premia.

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mildly negative

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