Amazon’s new Fire TV Stick HD signals the end of sideloading

This is less about the device itself and more about Amazon using hardware refreshes to close the platform in a controlled way. If Vega OS becomes the default on low-end streaming sticks, Amazon can tighten app distribution economics, reduce support burden, and improve security optics, but it also raises the switching cost for power users who have historically made Fire TV stick its own ecosystem. The second-order effect is that Amazon may be intentionally segmenting the Fire TV base: legacy Android-compatible devices for compatibility, new Vega devices for tighter monetization and platform control.

The market risk is not an immediate revenue hit; it is a longer-duration engagement and ecosystem risk. Sideloading matters disproportionately for a subset of users who drive reviews, forums, and word-of-mouth, so the first-order loss in units may be modest while the second-order loss is slower app-breadth adoption and weaker hardware stickiness over 12-24 months. The support-extension announcement is a defensive move that should reduce churn in the installed base, but it also signals Amazon knows the transition could alienate existing customers if pushed too fast.

The contrarian angle is that security-first messaging may actually improve attach rates in mainstream households where app store curation is a feature, not a bug. If Amazon can keep the old fleet supported through 2030 while funneling new buyers into Vega, the company gets a clean transition without forcing a big-bang migration. The key tell will be whether developer support for Vega apps accelerates; if not, Amazon risks a fragmented Fire TV ecosystem where the new OS is strategically cleaner but commercially less compelling.