This OpenAI Researcher-Turned-Hedge Fund Manager Is Long Intel and Short Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom. Is a Changing of the Guard on the Horizon?

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund — run by a 23-year-old ex-OpenAI Superalignment researcher and AGI author — disclosed Q3 13F activity that is sharply contrarian to the consensus AI trade: the fund bought put options on Nvidia (puts equal to 6.95% of the portfolio), Broadcom (1.77%) and TSMC (1.76%) while retaining a leveraged long in Intel call options representing 16.41% of the portfolio, despite Intel’s roughly 50% rally in Q3. The flip on Broadcom (from an 11.7% long in Q2 to puts in Q3) and the concentrated Intel long suggest the manager is either positioning for valuation-driven pullbacks in AI leaders or betting on a structural shift—eg, a successful Intel 18A node or a turnaround under new leadership—making this an out-of-consensus set of bets investors should watch for signals about the durability of the AI hardware rally.

Analysis

13F disclosures show Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness bought put options on Nvidia (notional 6.95% of the portfolio), Broadcom (1.77%) and TSMC (1.76%) in Q3 while maintaining a concentrated long via Intel call options equal to 16.41% of the portfolio; this is notable given Intel's roughly 50% rally in Q3 and SA's flip from an 11.7% Broadcom long in Q2 to puts in Q3. The manager is a 23-year-old ex-OpenAI Superalignment researcher who published a 165-page essay forecasting rapid AGI progress beginning in 2027, so the shorting of foundational chipmakers contrasts with his prior bullish AI infrastructure view. The trades can be read two ways: a valuation-driven hedge positioning for mean reversion in richly valued AI leaders, or a structural directional bet that Intel's 18A node execution or new leadership (Lip-Bu Tan, CEO since March 12) will materially re-order foundry/ASIC dynamics. Because 13F data do not show all short exposures and options are time- and strike-specific, these are high-conviction, out-of-consensus, and fluid positions that warrant monitoring of option expiries and subsequent filings as more definitive signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor SA's next 13F and options activity for changes in NVDA/AVGO/TSM puts and INTC calls as a near-term signal of conviction
• If you hold large positions in Nvidia, TSMC or Broadcom, consider trimming or hedging for a potential short-term valuation pullback given SA's put exposure and recent run-ups
• Only pursue leveraged or options-based long exposure to Intel if you have specific conviction in 18A execution or management-driven turnaround, and size such positions conservatively relative to the concentrated 16.41% notional bet
• Treat these filings as one informed but fluid data point—prioritize watching option expiries and subsequent filings before making material reallocations