Technical analysis indicates the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is positioned for short-term outperformance against the S&P 500, supported by improved intermediate-term momentum in the TLT/SPX ratio and a DeMARK 'buy' signal. While this bond outperformance is viewed as a counter-trend move, TLT itself shows bullish absolute technical indicators, including a recent 'golden cross' and a daily MACD buy signal, suggesting a potential minor breakout above its September peak of $90.50, targeting $92.50, with initial support around $88.00-$88.30.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is exhibiting technical signals indicative of short-term outperformance against the S&P 500 Index (SPX), with its ratio to SPX showing improved intermediate-term momentum and a DeMARK 'buy' signal. This setup, which has historically led to 2-3 months of relative outperformance, is considered a counter-trend move given the ratio's declining 40-week moving average. In absolute terms, TLT demonstrates promising intermediate-term developments, having broken above its 40-week MA in September and seen its weekly MACD turn positive. A recent "golden cross" (50-day MA above 200-day MA) further signals improved long-term momentum, while the ETF offers an attractive indicated yield of 4.14%. Current technical catalysts, including a daily MACD buy signal and a rising daily stochastic oscillator, increase the probability of a minor breakout above the September peak of $90.50. Should this occur, the next resistance target is the February peak near $92.50, with initial support established at the $88.00-$88.30 confluence of its 50- and 200-day MAs. The broader trend remains neutral below long-term resistance at $96.40.
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moderately positive
Sentiment Score
0.50
Ticker Sentiment
