Evercore ISI maintains NVIDIA stock outperform with $190 target

Evercore ISI reaffirmed its Outperform rating on NVIDIA with a $190 price target, citing the company's strong Q1 2025 earnings, which beat EPS and revenue forecasts at $0.96 and $44.1 billion respectively, despite a slightly below-consensus July quarter EPS outlook. The firm highlighted NVIDIA's 73% year-over-year data center growth, increasing Blackwell system yields contributing to 70% of DC revenues, and hyperscalers deploying an average of 72,000 Blackwell GPUs weekly, reinforcing NVIDIA's leading position in the AI ecosystem despite concerns about potential delays and competition.

Analysis

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) continues to exhibit robust financial health and market leadership, as evidenced by Evercore ISI's reaffirmed Outperform rating and $190.00 price target. The company, valued at $3.29 trillion, demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 114.2% over the last twelve months. For the April quarter (fiscal Q1 2025), NVIDIA reported earnings per share of $0.96, surpassing forecasts by 9%, and revenue of $44.1 billion, exceeding the projected $43.31 billion. Although the July quarter EPS outlook is slightly below consensus by 1%, this is offset by strong underlying fundamentals. Key investor concerns regarding potential Blackwell chip delays, hyperscaler capital expenditure digestion, and ASIC competition appear mitigated by current trends. NVIDIA's Data Center (DC) business grew by a significant 73% year-over-year, with Blackwell system yields reportedly on the rise and contributing to 70% of DC revenues. Major hyperscalers are actively deploying an average of 72,000 Blackwell GPUs weekly, and the next-generation GB300 chip is expected to ramp up production later in the current quarter. Financial metrics from InvestingPro underscore NVIDIA's strength, with a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 and an industry-leading gross profit margin of 75%, though it is noted to be trading near its Fair Value. Other analysts from Truist Securities (target $210), Stifel (target $180), KeyBanc (target $190), and Raymond James (target $165) also maintain positive ratings, citing strong data center revenue and successful Blackwell production ramp-up. Despite export restrictions impacting its H20 product and challenges in the China market, NVIDIA provided second-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $45 billion and remains confident in its growth trajectory within the AI ecosystem.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given NVIDIA's strong financial performance, dominant AI market position, and positive analyst consensus, investors might consider maintaining or initiating long positions, while being mindful that the stock is trading near its assessed Fair Value.
• Investors should closely monitor hyperscaler capital expenditure trends and the production ramp-up of the Blackwell and GB300 platforms, as these are critical drivers for sustained growth and margin performance.
• Vigilance is warranted regarding competitive developments from ASICs and the ongoing impact of export controls on the China market, as these factors could present headwinds despite current optimism.