Big Google Event in May! Here Are Our Expectations

This reads more like a developer-platform monetization checkpoint than a product launch, and that matters because the market usually underprices how much of Google’s near-term AI narrative depends on getting developers to build on Gemini instead of merely consuming it. If the event demonstrates materially better agent tooling and “vibe coding” workflows, the second-order effect is higher API utilization, more cloud attach, and a clearer path to monetizing AI through enterprise development spend rather than ad disruption alone. That is constructive for GOOGL over a 3-12 month horizon because it shifts the debate from AI capex burden to incremental revenue conversion.

The key beneficiary set is not just Google’s equity; it is the broader app-infrastructure stack if Google lowers the cost of shipping AI features. That creates competitive pressure on Microsoft GitHub/Copilot, OpenAI’s developer ecosystem, and smaller code-assist startups, which could see churn if Google bundles enough capability into existing workflows. The most fragile names are the pure-play AI coding vendors: they are priced on usage growth, but if Google’s native tools compress the value of a standalone assistant, their retention and pricing power could deteriorate within 1-2 quarters.

The contrarian risk is that the event becomes a “promise-heavy, revenue-light” showcase, which would reinforce the market’s view that Google is still playing catch-up in frontier AI despite strong model quality. In that case, GOOGL could lag on a relative basis even if the content is directionally positive, because investors may keep discounting eventual monetization until they see developer adoption metrics or cloud acceleration. The near-term catalyst window is days, but the real re-rating hinge is the next 1-2 earnings prints: if the conference is followed by stronger cloud backlog and higher paid AI usage, the trade works; if not, the event fades into narrative noise.