The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Most Likely to Mint New Millionaires

Remitly reported revenue growth of 26% YoY last quarter while its shares have fallen ~69% from all-time highs and trade just under $16 (market cap ~$3.27B). Management targets >$3.0B in revenue and $575–$600M in adjusted EBITDA long-term; the author notes a hypothetical $400M net income in 2026 implies a forward P/E of ~8 and argues the stock is attractively cheap for long-term investors. The piece contends AI and stablecoin narratives overstate disruption, highlighting Remitly's use of stablecoins to cut costs, AI to improve customer journeys, and expansion into spend/store product features as offsets to competitive risk.

Analysis

Remitly’s real competitive moat is operational: cross-border licensing, on‑/off‑ramp liquidity, and localized payout networks create high fixed and regulatory costs that scale benefits for a well‑capitalized incumbent. Stablecoin rails lower marginal transfer costs but shift value to firms that own custody, settlement and local distribution — meaning faster crypto adoption can concentrate volume into larger, compliant platforms rather than atomize it. AI is a margin lever, not a business model replacement; automating KYC/triage and routing improves unit economics materially once scale is reached because AML false positives and FX routing inefficiencies are high fixed‑cost problems.

Key reversals will be regulatory or FX‑shaped: a coordinated international move forcing instant cross‑border settlement standards or a major on‑ramp de‑banking episode could compress spreads and force new capital requirements within quarters. Conversely, incremental wins (new corridor licenses, bank partnerships, or meaningful reduction in dispute/chargeback costs from AI) compound over 12–36 months and re-rate cash conversion. Second‑order winners include local banks and card processors that plug into incumbents’ payout networks (they realize higher interchange volumes), while pure crypto-only rails without local cash-out remain economically marginal in many high-RAM corridors.

From a positioning standpoint, the highest expected return is asymmetric: long exposure funded with defensive hedges around regulatory newsflow. Time the size of exposure to 2–3 near-term catalysts (earnings and announced corridor integrations) and shift to convex instruments around multiyear optionality once unit economics prove durable. Maintain a playbook to trim on pipeline/partnership misses and to increase if AI-driven cost per transfer drops by >20% sequentially or if management announces multi‑corridor stablecoin custodial launches.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RELY via 18–36 month LEAPS (buy 2028 Jan calls or equivalent) sized 2–4% of risk budget; hedge with a 6–9 month OTM put (protecting ~30% downside) — Rationale: asymmetric upside if scale/AI reduces support & FX routing costs, defined downside via put limits loss.
• Pair trade: long RELY / short WU or MGI equal notional (revenue‑neutral) over 12 months — Rationale: capture share migration to digitally native, integrated settlement platforms while shorting legacy payout incumbents with higher legacy cost bases. Stop-loss: tighten if RELY misses two sequential quarters of margin improvement.
• Event hedge: buy short‑dated puts on RELY (60–120 days) ahead of major regulatory announcements or earnings if position is sized >3% — cost as insurance; exit on announcement or if implied vol spikes >50% vs historical.
• Tactical options: sell a covered call or implement a 12‑month call spread to finance LEAP exposure if you want to reduce net premium; favor strikes that leave 50–80% upside uncapped to retain multiyear optionality.