Global Watchlist 2026: Six of the world’s top 10 crisis-affected countries are in Africa

The International Rescue Committee’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist warns of a “New World Disorder” as humanitarian crises intensify: 20 Watchlist countries — just 12% of the global population — account for 89% of people in humanitarian need and nearly half of those in extreme poverty, with 239 million people requiring assistance and 117.3 million forcibly displaced. Africa dominates the list (six of the 10 most crisis-affected countries: Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, the DRC, Mali and Burkina Faso) as armed conflict reaches its highest level since WWII — half of active conflicts are now in Africa — compounded by climate shocks, rising attacks on civilians and infrastructure, and Sudan again ranked the world’s most severe crisis. Donor retrenchment forced the IRC to cut $400 million from its 2025 budget, resulting in two million people losing services and 6,000 staff redundancies, a funding collapse the IRC warns will deepen needs and pose significant risks to regional and global stability.

Analysis

The IRC's 2026 Emergency Watchlist frames a "New World Disorder" as humanitarian crises intensify: 20 Watchlist countries—just 12% of the global population—account for 89% of people in humanitarian need and nearly half of those in extreme poverty, with 239 million people needing assistance and 117.3 million forcibly displaced. Africa is disproportionately affected, hosting six of the ten most crisis-affected countries (Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, the DRC, Mali and Burkina Faso) and seeing half of global active conflicts, while Sudan is ranked the most severe crisis for the third consecutive year.

Armed conflict has reached its highest level since WWII, attacks on schools have risen nearly 50% and violence against health facilities has jumped, compounding displacement, food insecurity and climate-related shocks. Donor retrenchment produced an unprecedented $400 million budget cut for the IRC in 2025—led by U.S. reductions—forcing two million clients off services and 6,000 staff redundancies, demonstrating acute operational and funding fragility.

The concentration of conflict and diminished global support materially raises sovereign, corporate and operational risk in affected African states and neighbouring markets, increases the probability of commodity and supply-chain disruptions tied to food insecurity and climate extremes, and elevates the likelihood of regional spillovers that can affect capital flows. Investors should therefore price greater tail risk into assets linked to these countries and treat donor funding trends, displacement metrics and conflict escalation as actionable risk indicators.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or hedge direct exposure to sovereign debt, local-currency assets and corporates domiciled in the six most-affected African countries until conflict intensity and aid-stability metrics improve
• Monitor IRC and major donor funding trends, displacement figures (117.3 million displaced) and attacks on civilian infrastructure as leading indicators to adjust risk premia and liquidity buffers
• Consider tactical, hedged exposure to food- and logistics-related commodities that may experience price pressure from climate shocks and conflict-driven supply disruptions while keeping position sizes limited
• Increase use of FX and credit hedges and maintain higher cash/liquidity to withstand potential regional contagion, sudden capital outflows or sovereign stress driven by the described "New World Disorder"