Where Is This Bull Market's Second Wave

The S&P 500's current rally has advanced in a single, uninterrupted wave since April, contrary to prior expectations for a two-wave pattern. Despite this deviation, the analyst maintains a bullish outlook, anticipating an eventual news-driven correction of approximately 5% that would present a buying opportunity and separate two distinct advancing waves, potentially extending the overall market advance into late spring or summer.

Analysis

The S&P 500 has experienced a single, uninterrupted rally since April, diverging from the analyst's prior expectation of a "two-wave" advance. Despite this deviation from the anticipated technical pattern, the analyst maintains a bullish outlook on the market's trajectory, indicating a strong underlying momentum that has defied typical corrective phases.

The analyst anticipates an eventual news-driven correction, estimated at approximately 5%, which is viewed as a necessary catalyst to establish the second distinct advancing wave. This projected correction is not seen as a bearish signal but rather as a strategic buying opportunity. The overall two-wave advance is expected to extend into late spring or summer, indicating continued upside potential beyond any short-term pullback.

The analysis is rooted in "Market Technicals & Flows" and "Analyst Insights," with a "strongly positive" general sentiment and "bullish" tone. The analyst's disclosure of a beneficial long position in QQQ provides context regarding their personal market exposure, aligning with their optimistic forecast for the broader market.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor for a potential ~5% news-driven S&P 500 correction, as the analyst views this as a strategic buying opportunity for long-term positions.
• Consider aligning portfolio strategy with a bullish market outlook, anticipating a continuation of the advance into late spring or summer despite short-term volatility.
• Evaluate the analyst's long QQQ position as a potential indicator of conviction in technology-heavy growth sectors, which often lead broader market rallies.