The Carlyle Group stock gets Buy rating reaffirmed by TD Cowen

The Carlyle Group (CG) is receiving strong analyst endorsement, led by TD Cowen's reiterated Buy rating and $80 price target, positioning it as a top alternative investment pick. This positive outlook stems from CG's successful $20 billion ($24 billion including fund financing) capital raise for its Secondaries platform, effectively doubling Fund VII's amount and signaling robust fee-related earnings potential. Furthermore, strong Q2 2025 results and the strategic acquisition of intelliflo for up to $200 million have prompted other firms, including Citizens JMP and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, to also raise their price targets, reinforcing confidence in CG's growth trajectory.

Analysis

The Carlyle Group (CG) is demonstrating significant positive momentum, reinforced by strong analyst endorsements and robust operational performance. TD Cowen has reiterated its Buy rating and an $80.00 price target, designating CG as its top pick in the alternative investment sector. This confidence is largely driven by a recent successful capital raise of $20 billion for its Secondaries platform, which doubles the amount from Fund VII and reaches $24 billion when including fund financing. This substantial fundraising is expected to positively impact inflows, fee-related earnings (FRE), and FRE margins. The bullish sentiment is echoed by other firms following strong second-quarter 2025 results, with Citizens JMP raising its target to $75 and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods to $66, citing distributable earnings that surpassed estimates. Further underscoring its strategic growth, Carlyle is set to acquire intelliflo for up to $200 million, a deal expected to close in Q4 2025. This series of positive developments follows a 75% appreciation in the stock over the past year, with its current price of $64.93 still seen as undervalued by some analysts relative to a consensus of higher price targets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong consensus from multiple analysts and price targets suggesting significant upside, investors may consider the current price an attractive entry point or an opportunity to add to existing positions.
• Monitor future earnings reports for materialization of the expected growth in fee-related earnings (FRE) and net inflows, as these metrics are the primary justification for the current positive analyst outlook.
• Factor in the stock's 75% run-up over the past year, which could lead to near-term volatility, while also recognizing that the strategic benefits of the intelliflo acquisition are a longer-term catalyst, with the deal not closing until Q4 2025.