AMD CEO Lisa Su Believes Its Deal With Meta Platforms Will Be a Triple-Digit Billion Dollar Deal

Stock Advisor reports a total average return of 955% versus 191% for the S&P 500 (returns as of March 10, 2026). The March 5, 2026 video discusses AI stocks and teases a report on an “Indispensable Monopoly” that Nvidia and Intel need, while noting Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was not included in Stock Advisor’s current top 10 picks. Disclosures: Jose Najarro holds positions in AMD and Meta, The Motley Fool holds and recommends AMD and Meta, and Najarro is an affiliate who may be compensated for promoting Motley Fool services.

Analysis

The market is effectively bifurcating AI exposure: a concentrated bet on NVDA’s ecosystem-driven pricing power and a relegation of AMD to a lower-margin, follow-on role. That creates a second‑order squeeze on HBM, power-delivery, and high-end server PCB capacity—suppliers that can’t ramp quickly will see order fill rates and pricing move in NVDA’s favor over the next 6–12 months, reinforcing incumbency.

Near-term catalysts that matter are hyperscaler procurement cycles and next quarterly data‑center guides; those can move relative share by single-digit percentage points within one procurement window (3–9 months) and materially alter 12‑month revenue trajectories. Key reversal risks include a faster AMD/Intel silicon ramp, aggressive discounting from hyperscalers, or a tech‑capex slowdown tied to macro — any of which can compress NVDA multiple by 15–30% over a 3–9 month window.

From a positioning perspective, the most attractive trades are asymmetric convexity on NVDA upside and defined‑risk hedges against AMD share erosion. Also consider the indirect beneficiaries: ad/content heavy platforms (META, NFLX) that monetize improved recommendation models and can convert compute tailwinds into higher ARPU over 6–18 months. Finally, Intel is the true optionality bet — if its process/silicon surprises to the upside in 12–24 months it’s a regime change; until then treat it as a long‑dated volatility play rather than core exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA convexity: Buy a Jan‑2027 NVDA 600/900 call spread (defined debit). Position size 1–2% portfolio. Rationale: captures continued hyperscaler GPU demand with capped downside; target 2–4x payoff if NVDA sustains leadership in 9–12 months, max loss = premium paid.
• Pair trade: Long NVDA equity (0.8% portfolio) / Long AMD 9–12 month put spread (0.8% portfolio). Use the AMD put spread 20–25% OTM to limit cost. This expresses conviction in NVDA pricing power while protecting against AMD outperforming via a limited‑cost downside hedge.
• Event/earnings tactical: Buy META 6–12 month calls sized 0.5–1% portfolio into the next ad‑cycle; target 25–40% upside from improved monetization. Hedge with a small sell of short‑dated calls if delta rises >0.70 to finance carry.
• Contrarian optionality: Buy INTC Jan‑2028 OTM calls (small, 0.5% portfolio) as a long‑dated upside ticket — treat as binary payoff if process/silicon execution improves. Cap exposure to prevent crowding by a better risk/reward in NVDA/AMD pair trades.