3 Soaring Stocks to Hold for the Next 20 Years

MercadoLibre has delivered ~25% annualized total returns since its IPO and is down ~30% over the last six months as it increases investments in shipping and AI; it grew sales ~45% in its last quarter and trades at ~31x forward earnings. Casey's General Stores has returned ~18% annually since 1990, runs ~3,000 locations, targets 18–20% EBITDA growth in 2026 while opening at least 80 stores, and trades around 20x cash from operations. Wingstop has returned ~23% annually since its 2015 IPO but is ~48% below its 52-week high after a 5% same-store-sales decline; it trades at ~42x forward earnings, has ~2,000 stores approved toward a 10,000-store goal, and plans ~15% unit growth in 2026.

Analysis

MercadoLibre’s heavy reinvestment into logistics and AI is creating a structural moat that will bifurcate the Latin‑American e‑commerce market over the next 3–5 years: merchants that plug into a broad fulfillment/credit/ads stack will see unit economics improve materially versus standalone rivals, pressuring regional marketplaces and white‑label players. That same reinvestment raises a two‑way risk — high fixed capex and GPU/cloud spend compress near‑term margins but, if executed, should translate into higher cross‑sell take‑rates and lower CAC over a 24–36 month horizon. Currency and regulatory shocks in key LATAM jurisdictions remain the largest identifiable tail risks; hedging and scenario planning should assume occasional 20–30% local‑currency revenue swings in stressed years. Finally, increased logistics scale creates optionality to monetize B2B logistics and payments rails — a hidden revenue stream that would re‑rate multiples if realized at even low margins.

Casey’s benefits from consolidation dynamics that are underappreciated: ownership of supply‑chain touchpoints (distribution centers, private‑label sourcing, national promotions) gives meaningful gross‑margin insulation against localized fuel or food price swings over a 2–4 year window. The main second‑order exposure is labor and urban consumer behavior — denser markets yield faster inside‑sales growth but accelerate cannibalization risk as store density rises; franchise economics and AUV sensitivity should be stress‑tested to +200–300bp wage inflation. Near term (quarters), watch comps and fuel volumes; medium term, the upside is driven by roll‑out cadence and loyalty program monetization.

Wingstop’s unit economics are the lever: franchisor cash flows rise disproportionately as AUVs climb, so a modest macro recovery in discretionary dining can produce outsized free‑cash conversion for the company and franchisees over 3–5 years. Risk centers on multi‑year SSS normalization and international execution complexity — franchise approvals don’t guarantee AUV parity abroad and site selection mistakes can dilute returns. Separately, the restaurant category bifurcation (scaleable franchise concepts vs. asset‑heavy incumbents) implies winners will be those with low capex per incremental store and high digital mix; monitor unit‑level margin trends rather than headline store counts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long MELI (2–3% portfolio) accumulated on weakness over 3–9 months, paired with a 12‑month 25% OTM put spread to limit downside; target asymmetric R/R where a recovery in cross‑sell economics and margin re‑leverage could deliver >2x upside versus capped downside to the put spread strike.
• Overweight CASY (1–2% overweight) via share purchases funded by selling 9–12 month slightly OTM covered calls to boost yield while adding on 5–15% pullbacks; set stop if company guidance on store openings or EBITDA margin falls >10% vs current plan.
• Long WING via a two‑leg option structure: buy 18‑24 month LEAP call spread (captures long‑cycle unit growth) financed by selling nearer‑term calls into SSS rebounds; this expresses long franchise roll‑out upside while capping cost if the recent SSS weakness persists.
• Pair trade (risk‑off hedge): long MELI / short a LATAM e‑commerce index or largest local competitor (equal notional) for 12–24 months to isolate execution and network effects capture; this monetizes MERC consolidation tailwinds while hedging regional macro/FX shocks.