2025 is seeing the beginning of a new era in commerce

Bernstein analysts project OpenAI's integration of a checkout system into ChatGPT, enabling 'Agentic Commerce,' will fundamentally transform online shopping, potentially boosting retail e-commerce growth by 1.5-2.5 percentage points annually. This shift is expected to significantly benefit major card networks like Visa and Mastercard, along with payment processors such as Adyen, while digital wallets may face disintermediation unless they evolve. Key uncertainties remain regarding OpenAI's traffic scale and the broader impact on existing platform advertising and payment models.

Analysis

According to Bernstein analysts, OpenAI's integration of a checkout system within ChatGPT signifies the start of 'Agentic Commerce,' a fundamental shift in the e-commerce landscape. This development is projected to accelerate annual retail e-commerce growth by 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points by allowing users to complete purchases seamlessly within a chat interface. The primary beneficiaries of this new commercial model are expected to be major card networks, specifically Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), and payment processors like Adyen (ADYEN), which are reportedly already adapting their products with AI capabilities. Conversely, digital wallets face a significant risk of disintermediation unless they can innovate and redefine their role in this evolving ecosystem. While the outlook is optimistic, as reflected by a moderately positive sentiment score, key uncertainties remain regarding the scale of user traffic OpenAI can ultimately command and the broader impact on existing platform-based advertising and payment models.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider overweighting positions in major card networks like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), as they are identified as the primary winners from the growth of AI-driven 'Agentic Commerce'.
• Re-evaluate exposure to digital wallet providers such as PayPal (PYPL), closely monitoring their strategic responses to the threat of disintermediation from AI agents.
• Monitor key adoption metrics for OpenAI's commerce features, as the scale of user traffic will be a critical determinant of the velocity and impact of this market shift.
• Investors should analyze payment processors like Adyen (ADYEN) which are also positioned to benefit by adapting their technology to the new commerce model.