Invitation to SCA’s Q1 2026 press conference April 24, 2026, 10:00 CET

SCA will publish its Q1 2026 interim report on April 24, 2026 at approximately 08:00 CET, with a webcast press conference at 10:00 CET. President & CEO Ulf Larsson and CFO Andreas Ewertz will present and answer questions; the event will be available live on www.sca.com and via telephone dial-in.

Analysis

An upcoming corporate-results event in a mid-cap Nordic forest-products group is a high information-density moment: management tone on pricing, forestry asset valuations, and working-capital swings will create asymmetric information relative to peers. Expect the clearest second-order moves to come from pulp/tissue pricing commentary and any explicit change to harvest or log procurement strategies — small directional changes there amplify margins because raw wood is both a large cost and a not-easily-substituted input.

FX and regional energy costs are likely to be the two non-operating levers that move reported profits and cash conversion materially for the next 3–12 months. A SEK move of 5–10% versus EUR/GBP changes translated EBITDA by mid-single-digit percent historically for similar groups; similarly, a Nordic power-price shift will change pulp mill cash costs quickly and can flip a unit from loss to positive in a single quarter.

Competitive dynamics: peers with more diversified geographic exposure (UPM, Stora Enso, Billerud) will trade as natural hedges to any company-specific disappointment, while a stronger-than-expected operational beat could re-rate the specialist player on multiple expansion and trigger takeover chatter from strategic or financial buyers. The biggest tail risk is guided capacity/harvest changes that signal multi-year supply tightening — that would be bullish for prices across the paper/tissue complex but compress margins for downstream converters with fixed contracts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Event-volatility play: Buy a near-term straddle on the company's equity entering 2–3 trading days before the release (expiry 7–14 days post-event). Rationale: breakeven roughly ±4–6% move; if implied vol is below 30% and historical single-day moves for Nordic paper names are >4%, the upside is >2x skewed by potential guidance surprises. Risk: IV crush if move is muted; size to a 1–2% portfolio vega budget.
• Relative-value pair: Long the company (SCA) / short UPM or Stora Enso (UPM, STORA) sized to equal exposure to pulp prices for a 3-month horizon. Rationale: captures company-specific operational upside (e.g., cost-out or asset revaluation) while hedging sector-wide pulp-price moves. Target 6–12% relative outperformance; stop-loss if pair diverges >10% intraday post-release.
• Directional mid-cap long if tone is constructive: Add equity exposure to the company (or buy Jan/Mar 2027 calls) on confirmation of sustainable pricing power or disclosed harvest-cost reductions, targeting 12–25% upside over 6–12 months as multiples re-rate. Risk: material guidance cut or evidence of structural demand decline that can wipe near-term premium.
• Credit/capital-structure tactical: If management signals meaningful deleveraging or asset-sale optionality, buy senior bonds of the company (or reduce CDS hedges) with a 6–18 month horizon. Rationale: spread compression can be 100–300bps on credible deleveraging; downside is covenant/earnings miss leading to spread widening — cap position to 1–2% exposure.