2026. aasta II kvartali ja 6 kuu konsolideeritud poolaastaaruanne (auditeerimata)

Eesti majanduse taastumine jätkub: 2026. aasta majanduskasv on prognooside järgi ligikaudu 2,3–2,4%. Kasvu toetavad sisenõudluse taastumine, avaliku sektori investeeringud ja paranenud finantseerimistingimused, samas ehitussektoris (eriti hoonete ehituses) püsib investeerimisaktiivsuse tagakus. Suurem tugi tuleb riigikaitse-, taristu- ja energiaobjektide investeeringutest, mitte hoonete ehituse komponendist.

Analysis

This reads more like a stabilization trade than a broad cyclical upturn. The marginal winners are capital-intensive businesses tied to public procurement, where order visibility and financing costs matter more than household confidence; that favors contractors, materials, and parts of the industrial complex over consumer-facing property names.

Second-order, the mix matters: defense, grid, and transport spend can absorb labor and equipment capacity, which helps utilization for larger incumbents but squeezes private developers and smaller builders with weaker pricing power. If energy volatility returns, the immediate damage is usually not to public capex itself but to project margins through input-cost inflation and longer payback assumptions.

The market may be overreading the growth print as a clean demand recovery. A 2-3% growth regime is enough to stabilize earnings revisions, but not enough to justify a full rerating unless private investment and housing actually turn; the key falsifier is slower EU/fiscal execution or a renewed rate/energy shock over the next 1-3 months, with the structural test in 6-18 months being whether capex converts into sustained private credit demand.

Contrarian angle: the consensus tends to treat government-led construction recovery as uniformly bullish, but the real alpha is in relative exposure. Public works can support revenue, yet they also keep wage and materials inflation sticky, which caps margin expansion and leaves the most levered residential names as the weak link.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long PAVE vs. short ITB for a 1-3 month relative-value trade: public infrastructure demand should outperform private housing beta if financing remains supportive; stop if mortgage/refi activity and residential permits re-accelerate materially.
• Add a tactical long in European defense/infrastructure baskets (e.g., BAE.L, SAAB-B.ST, RHM.DE proxies) on weakness for a 6-18 month hold; public-capex visibility supports earnings durability, with upside if procurement budgets are revised higher.
• Stay underweight European homebuilders/real-estate developers; this is the segment most exposed to weak private investment transmission and margin pressure from labor/materials, so any rally there looks like a fade unless private capex data improves.
• Watch Baltic/Nordic banks as an indirect beneficiary rather than a primary trade: only get aggressive if loan growth and mortgage origination inflect over the next 1-2 quarters; otherwise the earnings lift is likely too slow to matter.