Halvårsrapport : januari - juni 2026

HMS rapporterade ett rekordstarkt kvartal: orderingången steg 20% till 979 MSEK och nettoomsättningen ökade 18% till 991 MSEK. EBITA ökade till 266 MSEK (marginal 26,8%, upp från 19,8%), och resultat efter skatt uppgick till 155 MSEK (vinst per aktie 3,10 SEK). Kassaflödet från löpande verksamhet stärktes till 334 MSEK och nettoskulden sjönk till 1,74x (från 3,12x), men bolaget varnar för stigande minnespriser och längre ledtider som kan belasta bruttomarginalen under H2.

Analysis

HMS is benefiting from a rare combination of end-market strength and product criticality: when datacenter and semiconductor capex are rising, the comms/control layer becomes a small-cost, high-urgency line item, which usually supports pricing power and faster backlog conversion. That makes the business less cyclical than the headline industrial exposure suggests, and the stronger cash generation gives management more room to buy growth rather than just harvest it. The strategic stakes in AI look more like optionality than near-term earnings, but they can deepen OEM relationships and raise switching costs over time.

The main near-term risk is not demand; it is supply-chain inflation. Memory and component lead times rising into H2 can create a delayed margin hit even if orders stay healthy, because it forces either higher input costs, more inventory, or shipment slippage. That kind of squeeze is usually what knocks down high-quality industrial names after a strong print: the market extrapolates gross margin durability until the next quarter proves otherwise. Falsifier to the bullish view is simple: if organic order growth decelerates sharply in Q3 or gross margin gives back most of the recent expansion, the rerating case breaks.

Contrarian take: the market may be underweighting how much balance-sheet repair and FCF convert this into a platform for accretive M&A, especially after the Molex integration broadens product reach. The consensus likely treats the quarter as a clean beat; I think the more important signal is that HMS is moving into a higher-quality earnings profile with less leverage and more strategic flexibility. That argues for owning weakness, not chasing the first pop.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Add to HMNKF on any 2-4% post-print pullback; prefer a 3-6 month horizon as the key catalyst is H2 margin resilience and analyst estimate revisions, not immediate multiple expansion.
• If options are liquid, express the view with a 3-6 month call spread on HMNKF rather than outright calls; the upside is driven by continued FCF/EBITA outperformance, while the main risk is a margin reset from component inflation.
• Set a hard watch item on Q3 gross margin and organic order growth: reduce risk if gross margin falls back toward the low-62% area or if organic orders slow materially below the current double-digit run rate.
• Treat the AI/Ekkono angle as optionality, not a core underwriting driver; do not pay ahead of earnings for the strategic narrative until there is evidence of attach rate or mix impact in 1-2 quarters.