American Express (AXP) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

American Express (AXP) is scheduled to report results for the quarter ended June 2025 on July 18, with consensus estimates projecting a 10.6% year-over-year EPS increase to $3.86 and an 8.3% revenue rise to $17.69 billion. Supported by a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.72% and a Zacks Rank #3, AXP is highly likely to surpass these consensus EPS estimates, consistent with its record of beating expectations in the past four quarters. This strong outlook suggests potential positive stock price movement following the release.

Analysis

American Express (AXP) is positioned for a strong Q2 2025 earnings report, with consensus estimates pointing to significant year-over-year growth. Wall Street anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to reach $3.86, a 10.6% increase, on revenues of $17.69 billion, up 8.3% from the prior-year quarter. The likelihood of a positive surprise is high, underpinned by a Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.72% and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), a combination that historically predicts an earnings beat with high probability. This bullish short-term outlook is further supported by a consistent history of outperformance, with AXP having surpassed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, including a +5.51% surprise in the most recent report. While these quantitative signals are compelling, the article cautions that the ultimate share price reaction on July 18 will also be heavily influenced by management's commentary on business conditions and the forward-looking outlook provided during the earnings call.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong quantitative indicators suggesting a high probability of an EPS beat, investors may view the period before the July 18 report as an opportunity to assess or establish a bullish position on AXP.
• The primary catalyst for a sustained stock move will be management's guidance; therefore, it is critical to analyze the earnings call for commentary on consumer spending, credit performance, and forward revenue and profit forecasts.
• While an earnings beat seems likely, investors should remain aware that a failure to meet these heightened expectations or the issuance of cautious guidance could trigger a negative stock reaction, highlighting the event risk associated with holding a position through the announcement.