IEA says Middle East conflict altering medium-term gas outlook

The Iran war has already caused an estimated loss of about 120 billion cubic metres of global LNG supply over the 2026-2030 period, according to an IEA analyst. The disruption is materially negative for global energy balances and could support higher gas prices or tighter LNG markets. The impact is potentially market-wide given the scale and multi-year horizon of the supply shortfall.

Analysis

The Iran war has already caused an estimated loss of about 120 billion cubic metres of global LNG supply over the 2026-2030 period, according to an IEA analyst. The disruption is materially negative for global energy balances and could support higher gas prices or tighter LNG markets. The impact is potentially market-wide given the scale and multi-year horizon of the supply shortfall.