Nvidia earnings topped forecasts by 10% over past 2 years, double the S&P 500 beat

Nvidia is expected to report fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, with analysts projecting adjusted EPS of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion, a significant increase from the previous year. Analysts from Stifel and Bank of America anticipate a "modest" beat, driven by demand for Hopper and Blackwell chips, potentially offsetting the impact of H20 export restrictions to China; however, Nvidia's stock has shown volatility in 2025, and options traders anticipate a possible swing of up to 7.4% following the earnings release.

Analysis

Nvidia has demonstrated a consistent ability to surpass Wall Street expectations, with earnings per share exceeding projections by an average of 9.8% and revenue by 8.9% over the past eight quarters, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average (5% and 1.3% respectively). For its upcoming fiscal 2026 first quarter, analysts project adjusted EPS of $0.88 on $43.3 billion in revenue, a substantial increase from $0.61 EPS and $26 billion revenue in the same period last year. Analysts from Stifel and Bank of America anticipate a "modest" beat, driven by robust demand for its Hopper (H200) and new Blackwell (GB200) chips, which is expected to mitigate the impact of the recently enacted H20 chip export restrictions to China. This optimism follows a strong fiscal fourth quarter where Nvidia surpassed estimates and announced full-scale production of Blackwell GPUs, generating $11 billion from AI chips. However, the stock fell 8.5% post-Q4 results due to a weaker-than-expected gross margin outlook for the first quarter. Nvidia's stock has faced volatility in 2025, reacting to concerns over new AI models and trade tensions, and options markets are currently pricing in a potential share price movement of up to 7.4% following the upcoming earnings announcement.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should pay close attention to Nvidia's gross margin guidance for the upcoming quarter, as this proved to be a critical factor influencing stock performance after the last earnings report despite strong headline numbers.
• Given the historical outperformance but also recent stock volatility and the options market's expectation of a significant price swing, consider risk management strategies appropriate for a high-beta event.
• Evaluate management's commentary on the demand sustainability for Hopper and Blackwell chips, the ramp-up of GB200 servers, and the tangible impact of H20 export restrictions to China on forward-looking revenues.