As Americans scale back on charitable giving, this Texas architect shares his unusual ‘shotgun approach’

An AP-NORC poll of 1,146 U.S. adults (Dec. 4-8, ±4 percentage points) finds roughly half have already made charitable contributions for 2025 while 18% gave and plan to give again, 6% plan to give before year-end, and 30% haven’t and don’t plan to; about 1 in 10 donated on GivingTuesday while nearly half participated in Black Friday shopping and ~40% gave at store checkouts. The story highlights competing pressures on giving — federal funding cuts, a SNAP benefits freeze, foreign aid rollbacks and major natural disasters — alongside a new tax incentive (charitable deduction up to $1,000 individual/$2,000 married) and weak income gains plus high inflation that have constrained lower-income donors. Fundraisers still view December as critical (National Philanthropic Trust estimates ~1/3 of annual giving occurs in December), but the poll indicates limited broad donor response to recent government funding shortfalls, with roughly 30% saying cuts or the shutdown affected charity choices.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are fundraising-software and payments stacks (Blackbaud BLKB, PayPal PYPL, Visa MA) and large omnichannel retailers that offer checkout rounding (WMT, TGT) because the data show ~40% of adults gave at checkout and ~1/3 of annual giving concentrates in December; losers are smaller charities reliant on last‑minute large gifts and discretionary retailers that lose share when consumers tighten belts. Pricing power shifts to platforms that can capture recurring micro-donations (fee capture of 1–5%) and to wealth managers (Bank of America BAC) that upsell philanthropic advisory services to higher-net-worth clients.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include (1) a political reversal or rollback of the new $1k/$2k charitable deduction within 6–12 months, (2) a major disaster causing a one-off surge that distorts seasonals, and (3) a GDP contraction causing a 5–15% drop in individual giving. Short-term (days–weeks) impact is negligible; key windows are year‑end reporting and tax season (Jan–Apr) for observable flows; long-term (years) risk is secular donor decline and higher fundraising CAC compressing non-profit margins.

Trade implications: Direct plays favor digital fundraising platforms (BLKB) and payment rails (MA/PYPL) while underweighting discretionary retailers (XRT) that depend on surplus consumer spend. Option strategies: buy 6–12 month call spreads on BLKB and PYPL to capture seasonal and secular adoption; consider pair trades long BLKB / short XRT or overweight BAC vs regional banks to capture fee growth from philanthropic advisory.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates the stickiness of micro-checkout donations — small recurring flows can materially raise TPV for payment networks and steady BLKB ARR (2–4% revenue tailwind). The policy nudges (small above-the-line deduction) may be underpriced: a modest 1–3% lift in mid‑market giving over 12 months is plausible. Conversely, higher nonprofit CAC (more appeals) could compress margins and increase demand for fundraising software, creating a counterintuitive win for SaaS vendors even as charities struggle.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Blackbaud (BLKB) with a 6–12 month horizon to play accelerating digital fundraising; enter on current levels or any pullback >5%, set a stop loss at -15% and target +20–35% if YoY recurring revenue growth accelerates by >3ppt next two quarters.
• Buy a small, tactical 1% notional 6–9 month call spread on PayPal (PYPL) (e.g., 10–25% OTM) to capture incremental checkout and peer‑to‑peer donation volume; unwind if monthly checkout donation volumes reported by retailers decline >10% MoM or PYPL rollback guidance misses by >3% revenue.
• Overweight BAC by 1.5–2% (or long BAC vs short KRE at 1:0.75 weight) to capture philanthropic advisory and wealth‑fee tailwinds; add on dips >7% and reduce if BAC wealth AUM growth falls below +1% YoY over a quarter.
• Establish a 1–2% short position in consumer discretionary ETF XRT (or buy a 3‑month put spread) to hedge risk of weaker year‑end discretionary spending; initiate if monthly retail sales decline >0.5% MoM or consumer confidence slips below 90.