Monday.com stock price target lowered to $300 at Jefferies on GTM shift impact

monday.com (MNDY) shares recently fell over 13% after the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance rather than raising it for the first time, and its Q4 guidance slightly missed analyst expectations. Jefferies, which reduced its price target to $300, noted impacts from a shift to AI traffic and a go-to-market strategy change towards larger customers, leading to longer sales cycles. Despite these headwinds, management remains confident in achieving its fiscal year 2027 revenue goal, while analysts have issued varied price target adjustments, generally reflecting concerns over growth assumptions and customer acquisition momentum.

Analysis

monday.com (MNDY) shares plunged 13.73% to $166.21 after the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance for the first time, rather than raising it, and missed Q4 guidance by 1%. This occurred despite a strong 28.62% LTM revenue growth, prompting Jefferies to reduce its price target to $300 from $330 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting immediate market reaction to perceived guidance deceleration.

The guidance maintenance is primarily attributed to a strategic pivot towards larger enterprise customers, entailing longer sales cycles, and a minor impact from AI traffic shifts. This go-to-market change has affected near-term revenue visibility and bookings, evidenced by mixed Q3 results that beat revenue but missed bookings, indicating a softer 2025 top-line outlook.

Despite short-term challenges, management remains confident in achieving its fiscal year 2027 revenue goal of $1.8 billion and meeting fiscal year 2026 consensus. MNDY trades at 4.6x CY26 EV/Sales, slightly below Dropbox (DBX) at 4.7x, yet offers significantly higher 22% growth for 2026 compared to DBX's -1%, suggesting a potentially undervalued growth profile.

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with price targets ranging from $200 to $275. Concerns center on customer acquisition momentum and growth assumptions, while some analysts highlight the strategic shift as a long-term positive, indicating a lack of consensus on the immediate impact and future trajectory.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor monday.com's execution of its strategic shift towards larger enterprise customers, particularly the impact on sales cycle length and bookings growth in upcoming quarters.
• Given the significant share price decline and mixed analyst sentiment, investors may consider evaluating MNDY's current valuation of 4.6x CY26 EV/Sales against its projected 22% growth for 2026, comparing it to peers like Dropbox.
• Prudent investors should assess whether the management's confidence in achieving its FY27 revenue goal of $1.8 billion is supported by tangible signs of progress in customer acquisition and revenue acceleration beyond the near-term headwinds.