Invitation to Epiroc’s results presentation for Q1 2026 on April 29

Epiroc AB will publish Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, April 29 at ~11:30 CEST and hold an investor/analyst presentation at 14:00 CEST, presented by CEO Helena Hedblom and CFO Håkan Folin. The presentation will be in English and available via webcast for investors, analysts and media.

Analysis

Epiroc is at an inflection where quarterly commentary on order intake and aftermarket growth will move valuation more than headline revenue. The market often underprices the margin optionality from electrification of underground fleets — a 1-2 percentage point uplift in services and software penetration over 12–24 months can translate to a high-teens percent operating leverage on current working backlogs given recurring revenue characteristics.

Second-order supply-chain effects matter: semiconductor and battery module lead times create backlog smoothing, which can temporarily decouple reported revenues from underlying demand. That opens a 1–3 quarter risk where beats in order intake do not immediately convert to sales, benefiting peers with larger global OEM channels (creating relative winners within the industrial equipment cluster).

FX and cyclical capex timing are the biggest near-term macro risks — a stronger SEK or a slowdown in mining capex tied to a commodity price wobble can compress reported SEK margins within two quarters. Conversely, if management signals faster conversion of large electrification orders or higher priced aftermarket service contracts, expect a re-rating within 3–6 months as investors revalue recurring margin streams.

Consensus complacency centers on linear cyclical recovery; the contrarian view is that structural winners will be those that lock recurring software/service contracts on electric fleets. That favors names with installed bases and telematics platforms, suggesting durable cash flow upside that the market may not fully price until 2–4 quarters of consistent data are published.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Event-driven long: Buy STO:EPIA (or STO:EPIB) 3-month call spread around the report (buy nearer-term ATM call, sell OTM call 1.5–2x width) to capture positive surprises on order intake while capping premium—target 2:1 reward-to-risk if order intake beats by >3–5% QoQ; stop if aftermarket commentary is weak within 48 hours.
• Relative-value pair (1–6 months): Long STO:EPIA / Short NYSE:CAT — go 1:1 notional to express conviction that mining electrification and telematics re-rate Epiroc more than cyclical exposure priced into CAT; expect asymmetric upside if Epiroc converts electrification orders to recurring service revenue, downside hedge if global construction rebounds strongly.
• Volatility hedge (days): Buy a 7–14 day straddle on STO:EPIA around the release if liquid—this isolates headline surprise risk; unwind within 1–3 days post-call to avoid theta bleed, target >25% premium move to breakeven.
• Tactical short (weeks–months): Initiate a small short if management flags prolonged backlog-to-revenue conversion or rising input-cost pass-through issues—target attractive entry on a 3–5% pop after the print, size <3% portfolio and use a 6–12 week horizon given macro uncertainty.