Noteworthy Monday Option Activity: AMTM, CRDO, UBER

Unusually large options activity was recorded in Credo Technology (CRDO) and Uber (UBER) today, with CRDO seeing 29,199 contracts (~2.9M underlying shares, ~57.2% of its 1‑month average daily volume of 5.1M) and heavy interest in the Feb 20, 2026 $85 put (10,188 contracts, ~1.0M shares). Uber registered 104,977 contracts (~10.5M underlying shares, ~57.1% of its 1‑month average daily volume of 18.4M), concentrated in the Feb 20, 2026 $70 put (9,701 contracts, ~970.1k shares). Such concentrated put flows point to significant bearish positioning or hedging demand into that February expiration and warrant monitoring for potential short-term price impact or volatility in the names.

Analysis

Market structure: Large, concentrated Feb‑2026 put blocks in CRDO (10,188 contracts at $85 ≈ 1.0M shares) and UBER (9,701 contracts at $70 ≈ 970k shares) equal ~57% of each stock’s one‑month ADV — a clear demand shock for long‑dated downside protection that will lift implied volatility and skew in both tickers for months. Direct beneficiaries are options sellers and volatility funds receiving elevated premia; holders of underlying equity (especially leveraged holders) are hurt if these reflect directional conviction rather than hedging.

Risk assessment: Near term (days–weeks) expect elevated IV and asymmetric liquidity risk for CRDO given smaller market cap — put buying can widen spreads and create transient negative gamma squeezes. Medium term (1–6 months) tail risks include company‑specific catalysts (earnings, guidance cuts, regulatory actions for CRDO; platform regulation or ad/driver dynamics for UBER); long term (into 2026) this flow suggests institutional hedging against recession/structural weakness. Hidden dependencies: trades could be synthetic (seller of puts offset by equity buys) or block hedges for other portfolios, so price impact may be temporary if offsets unwind.

Trade implications: For UBER consider a defined‑risk bearish position: sell-to-open a Feb‑2026 $70/$50 put spread size 1–2% NAV equivalent, collect premium with stop if IV drops >30% or underlying rallies above $80; alternatively buy a cheaper $70 Feb‑2026 put if directional and IV rank <60. For CRDO favor small, protected trades: buy Feb‑2026 85/65 put spread (size 0.5–1% NAV) or short a near‑term covered call against core exposure to monetize elevated IV. Pair trade: long UBER vs short LYFT (LYFT) to capture operational leverage differences.

Contrarian angles: The block flow might be hedging long exposure — if sellers of these puts are institutions collecting yield, downside may be limited; a short‑term overreaction could present buying windows (target 15–25% pullback thresholds). Historical parallels: large put blocks pre‑2008/2020 sometimes signaled hedging ahead of macro risk, not pure bearish bets — confirm via SEC/large trader reports and IV term‑structure before scaling. Monitor IV rank (>50), open interest shifts, and option sweep data daily; avoid unilateral large directional bets without confirming order flow context.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a defined‑risk bearish spread on UBER: sell Feb‑2026 $70/$50 put spread sized to 1–2% of portfolio notional; take profits at 50% of premium collected, cut loss if spread widens 2x or UBER > $80 for 10 trading days.
• Initiate a conservative CRDO hedge: buy Feb‑2026 85/65 put spread (size 0.5–1% NAV) to gain downside protection; if IV spikes >40% from today, scale to half size and use limit fills due to low liquidity.
• Do a relative‑value pair trade: long UBER vs short LYFT equal dollar exposure (0.5–1% NAV each) to exploit operational margin and ad‑mix differences; exit if spread shifts >10% in favor of LYFT within 60 days.