March Madness

Probability of de-escalation in the Middle East is described as 'more likely than not' (>50%), though the path will include repeated negotiation rounds and ceasefire violations over days-to-months. Expect episodic headline-driven volatility and risk-on/risk-off swings around negotiation and ceasefire events, but the author expects limited likelihood of a sustained market-wide shock if de-escalation trends prevail.

Analysis

Probability of de-escalation in the Middle East is described as 'more likely than not' (>50%), though the path will include repeated negotiation rounds and ceasefire violations over days-to-months. Expect episodic headline-driven volatility and risk-on/risk-off swings around negotiation and ceasefire events, but the author expects limited likelihood of a sustained market-wide shock if de-escalation trends prevail.