3 Reasons A Recession Is Likely

U.S. economic signals are mixed in early 2026 and the recent Middle East conflict has raised uncertainty. The two dominant drivers are a strong AI-driven tech spending boom and continued large fiscal deficit spending, which together may support growth while complicating Fed policy and increasing market risk premia.

Analysis

U.S. economic signals are mixed in early 2026 and the recent Middle East conflict has raised uncertainty. The two dominant drivers are a strong AI-driven tech spending boom and continued large fiscal deficit spending, which together may support growth while complicating Fed policy and increasing market risk premia.