Where did people move to in 2025? Here's what U-Haul says and how Pennsylvania ranks

U-Haul's 2025 semiannual migration report, based on more than 2.5 million one-way truck, trailer and container transactions across the U.S. and Canada, ranks Texas as the top growth state for the seventh time in a decade while California again ranks last. Eight Sun Belt/warm-weather states occupy the top 10 growth list (led by Texas, Florida and North Carolina) and northeastern/Midwestern states dominate the bottom 10 (including Pennsylvania at 46/50, unchanged from 2024). The report also notes political patterns among gainers/losers and highlights housing context: U.S. average rent ~$1,623/mo versus Pennsylvania ~$1,526/mo (up 1.9% year-over-year).

Analysis

Market structure: Persistent Sunbelt in‑migration (TX, FL, NC, TN, SC) benefits homebuilders (DHI, LEN, PHM), building materials (VMC, MLM) and single‑family rental REITs (INVH, AMH) through higher permits, rents and pricing power; losers include coastal/Northeast urban landlords and office REITs (EQR, SLG) facing slower demand and rent pressure. Expect pricing power concentration: regional homebuilders with land banks in TX/FL can sustain 5–15% higher ASPs vs national peers over 12–24 months.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a faster-than-expected Fed easing (mortgage rates <6.0% within 6 months) that re‑energizes expensive coastal markets, major climate shocks (hurricane/wildfire) hitting Sunbelt inventories, or rent controls/regulatory shifts in key metros. Near term (0–3 months) sentiment swings dominate; medium term (3–12 months) depends on employment flows and mortgage rates; long term (12–36 months) depends on housing supply additions and state fiscal policy.

Trade implications: Favor overweight homebuilders (XHB, DHI, LEN) and single‑family rental REITs (INVH, AMH) for 6–18 month total return; underweight urban apartment and office landlords (EQR, SLG) and CA/Northeast retail/REITs. Use call spreads to capture asymmetric upside if mortgage rates compress; hedge with short exposure to Northeast REITs or put protection sized to 25–40% of longs.

Contrarian angles: The consensus underprices supply response — accelerated permits in Sunbelt could cap house price gains if starts rise >15% YoY; U‑Haul one‑way trips measure mobility not permanence, so emphasize cash flows (rents, FFO) over price appreciation. If mortgage rates stay >6.5% for 12+ months, rental fundamentals will outperform for longer than currently priced.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 5% net long position split 2.5% D.R. Horton (DHI) and 2.5% Lennar (LEN) — target 20–30% price appreciation over 6–12 months; set stop‑loss at 12% and trim at +25%.
• Initiate 3% exposure to single‑family rental REITs: 1.5% Invitation Homes (INVH) and 1.5% American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) for 12–24 month income+growth; buy on dips >8% or if same‑market rent growth accelerates >4% YoY.
• Open a 2% short or buy 9–12 month puts on Equity Residential (EQR) or SL Green (SLG) to capture downside in Northeast urban rents; target 10–20% downside, stop if position moves >8% against you.
• Buy a 6‑month XHB call spread (size 0.5% portfolio) to leverage homebuilder upside if mortgage rates fall <6.5% or building permits in TX/FL rise >10% YoY; cap debit to 0.5% as defined risk.
• Allocate 3% to construction materials names Vulcan Materials (VMC) and Martin Marietta (MLM) (1.5% each) as a demand‑sensitive hedge; add if state muni spreads for TX/FL tighten by >20bps vs national within 3 months.