Novo Nordisk is still a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs reiterated a 'Buy' rating on Novo Nordisk with an unchanged DKK392 price target, though it expects the company to narrow its 2025 guidance and projects Q3 results below consensus due to lower Ozempic forecasts and un-factored restructuring charges. While Wegovy estimates are in line, the firm notes 2026 earnings momentum remains uncertain, contingent on post-Q3 consensus resets, GLP-1 pricing dynamics, and CagriSema trial readouts. Significant investor focus is also on the high-risk, high-reward oral semaglutide Alzheimer's trial data due in December, which could materially impact sentiment and valuation.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Buy' rating on Novo Nordisk (NVO) with an unchanged DKK392 price target, implying approximately 12% upside, yet signals significant near-term caution. The bank anticipates NVO will narrow the upper band of its 2025 guidance during its third-quarter report on November 5th. Goldman's own Q3 estimates are notably below consensus, projecting sales 2% lower and operating profit a substantial 22% lower, citing reduced Ozempic forecasts and restructuring charges not yet fully priced in by the market. This suggests a potential for negative earnings surprise and subsequent consensus resets. Looking forward, the earnings momentum for 2026 is described as uncertain, hinging on future GLP-1 pricing dynamics and key trial readouts for CagriSema. A major near-term catalyst is the high-risk data from the EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials for oral semaglutide in Alzheimer's disease, due in December, which Goldman believes could materially impact valuation and sentiment despite the high probability of failure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should be prepared for potential stock price volatility around the November 5th earnings release, as Goldman's forecast for operating profit is 22% below consensus, creating a risk of a negative market reaction.
• The December data readout for the Alzheimer's trials is a significant binary event; consider positioning for high volatility, as a positive result could unlock material upside while a failure is a key risk.
• Monitor management commentary on GLP-1 pricing and the CagriSema trials post-earnings, as these are identified as the critical factors for clarifying the uncertain 2026 earnings outlook.
• While the 'Buy' rating suggests long-term confidence, the near-term headwinds and below-consensus estimates may warrant a cautious stance or hedging of long positions ahead of the upcoming earnings and clinical trial catalysts.