Prediction: 1 Figure That Shows the Quantum Computing Bubble Will Burst for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum in 2026

Quantum computing pure-plays have rallied sharply in 2025—IonQ +68%, Rigetti +333%, D-Wave +568% and Quantum Computing Inc. +89% through Dec. 12—driven by large addressable-market estimates (The Quantum Insider up to $1 trillion by 2035; BCG $450–850bn by 2040), but their trailing price-to-sales ratios are extraordinarily elevated (IonQ 156, Rigetti 992, D‑Wave 315, QCI 3,144) and remain well above historical “bubble” thresholds even using 2027 revenue forecasts (IonQ 55.9, Rigetti 177.7, D‑Wave 122.6, QCI 270.1). The piece argues the P/S metric—while not timing bubbles—signals substantial downside risk and likely volatility (potential correction in 2026) because commercialization and profitable use cases are still nascent, though selective long-term upside could materialize if adoption and monetization accelerate over multiple years.

Analysis

Quantum computing pure-plays have rallied sharply in 2025 — IonQ +68%, Rigetti +333%, D‑Wave +568% and Quantum Computing Inc. +89% through Dec. 12 — buoyed by large addressable‑market estimates (The Quantum Insider up to $1 trillion by 2035; BCG $450–$850 billion by 2040). This investor enthusiasm is concentrated in a small group of loss‑making, early‑stage companies with speculative commercial traction.

Valuation metrics highlight elevated downside risk: trailing price‑to‑sales ratios are 156 (IonQ), 992 (Rigetti), 315 (D‑Wave) and 3,144 (QCI), and consensus 2027 revenue forecasts would still imply P/S ratios of roughly 55.9, 177.7, 122.6 and 270.1 respectively — all far above the historical ~30 P/S level linked to prior technology bubbles. The article signals a high probability of sharp re‑rating and anticipates 2026 will be a challenging year for these names.

Commercialization and profit evidence remain nascent, so time and concrete revenue/margin inflection points will separate eventual winners from speculative losers over a five‑to‑ten year horizon. Investors should expect continued volatility, monitor quarterly sales and customer commercialization milestones closely, and avoid assuming current parabolic moves reflect sustainable fundamentals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or avoid large long positions in IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. given extreme trailing P/S ratios and elevated re‑rating risk heading into 2026
• If retaining exposure, cap allocations to a small percentage of risk capital, adopt a multi‑year horizon, and require clear revenue and margin inflection points tied to the 2027 revenue trajectory before adding
• Implement downside protection (protective puts or hedges) or use relative/value trades versus larger tech incumbents ahead of likely volatility, because valuation compression is a primary risk
• Monitor concrete commercialization indicators — quarterly sales growth, customer wins, and margin improvement — and consider rotating toward diversified tech vendors referenced in the piece (Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco) if pure‑play valuations remain disconnected