Nebius Stock Has Nearly Doubled This Year. Here's Why It Still Has Room to Run.

NBIS is being priced like a software multiple story, but the real driver is infrastructure scarcity: when demand is this strong, the economic value migrates from model-layer hype to whoever can secure power, GPUs, and rack capacity fastest. That means the next leg is less about revenue beats and more about whether management can convert growth into durable supply access without destroying unit economics through overbuild or customer concentration.

The market is likely underappreciating how nonlinear the operating leverage can be once the current capacity wave is in place. If utilization stays elevated, the stock can continue outperforming even if the multiple compresses, because the re-rating will come from forward revenue resets, not profits. The danger is that neoclouds are capital-intensive and mechanically vulnerable to any slowdown in hyperscaler capex, GPU leasing terms, or financing conditions over the next 6-12 months.

Second-order beneficiaries are the suppliers that monetize capacity expansion without taking the balance-sheet risk: GPU vendors, networking, power, and datacenter equipment names. The key contrarian point is that the stock may still be cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but only if the growth is real, repeatable, and not just a temporary backlog conversion; if 2026 growth decelerates even modestly, the narrative can compress quickly because today’s valuation already embeds perfection.