2 stocks to buy before SpaceX IPO

A potential SpaceX IPO valued at up to $2 trillion is driving investor positioning and creating a bullish backdrop for the space sector. The article highlights Rocket Lab's $601.8 million in 2025 revenue, up about 38% year over year, and Planet Labs' $307.7 million fiscal 2026 revenue, up 26%, as potential beneficiaries of increased capital flows and launch demand. Both names face valuation or profitability risks, but the near-term catalyst is sector sentiment around the anticipated listing.

Analysis

The cleaner read is not that a SpaceX IPO directly re-rates the space group, but that it could reset the financing regime for the entire category. A marquee deal would likely widen the investor base from venture/thematic holders into generalist growth and crossover capital, which matters most for names that still need repeated capital access or milestone funding. That makes RKLB the more levered public proxy: if the market starts underwriting “strategic space infrastructure” as a category rather than a science project, duration-sensitive multiple expansion can outpace near-term fundamentals.

The second-order winner is not launch alone but the ecosystem around recurring orbital demand. PL benefits if the market begins to value satellite data as an annuity-like layer on top of launch capacity, but the bigger implication is for suppliers and adjacent asset-light businesses that can scale without proportional capex. Conversely, any enthusiasm for SpaceX will likely compress relative attention on smaller, less differentiated launch names and on companies with weaker unit economics, because investors will prefer one or two category leaders over a basket of speculative peers.

The main risk is timing mismatch: the event-driven bid may show up immediately, while operating proof points are months away. If the IPO is delayed, priced below expectations, or comes with a cautious lockup/insider sale structure, the trade could unwind quickly as positioning is currently narrative-driven rather than cash-flow-driven. In PL specifically, the market can tolerate losses only if subscription growth keeps compounding; any slowdown in renewals or margin improvement would expose the stock as a long-duration asset with limited near-term self-funding capacity.

Contrarianly, the bigger beneficiary may be not the obvious public comps but the picks-and-shovels layer tied to launches, ground systems, and defense-adjacent payload demand. Investors may be overpaying for the “SpaceX halo” while underestimating that the best risk/reward is in companies that gain volume regardless of who wins the brand premium. If the IPO becomes a success, expect a short-lived sentiment wave; if it becomes a blockbuster, expect multiple compression later as the market distinguishes hype beneficiaries from durable compounders.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RKLB into any pre-IPO strength, with a 1-3 month horizon; use pullbacks to build because it is the highest-beta public proxy to a re-rating of the space theme. Risk/reward is favorable if the SpaceX deal ignites sector-wide multiple expansion, but trim aggressively if valuation stretches further without Neutron execution progress.
• Buy PL only on dips or via call spreads over the next 2-4 months; the setup is better as a sentiment-plus-recurring-revenue trade than a fundamental rerating. The risk is that the market temporarily values the story, but then refocuses on losses and slows the multiple expansion.
• Consider a pair trade long RKLB / short a weaker, non-differentiated small-cap space peer if available in the book, targeting 6-10 weeks around the IPO window. The thesis is that capital will concentrate in the best-positioned incumbent rather than spread evenly across the sector.
• Hedge event-risk with short-dated puts on RKLB or PL if either rallies sharply into the IPO headline. This protects against a classic buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news reversal if filing timelines slip or the valuation comes in below the market’s fantasy level.
• For more conservative exposure, express the theme through a basket approach with smaller weights in RKLB and PL rather than a single-name concentration. The upside is capture of sector sentiment; the downside is reduced idiosyncratic blow-up risk if the IPO catalyst disappoints.