Iran Conflict & Energy Volatility's Impact on FOMC, Bond Market

ISM manufacturing data and Collin Martin's analysis indicate that the U.S.-Iran war combined with energy-price pressure increases the risk of persistent inflation into 2026, complicating the Fed's dual mandate and supporting a more hawkish FOMC stance. Portfolio implications: position for higher-for-longer rates and consider overweighting energy exposure while monitoring ISM, CPI, and oil-price prints for tactical adjustments.

Analysis

ISM manufacturing data and Collin Martin's analysis indicate that the U.S.-Iran war combined with energy-price pressure increases the risk of persistent inflation into 2026, complicating the Fed's dual mandate and supporting a more hawkish FOMC stance. Portfolio implications: position for higher-for-longer rates and consider overweighting energy exposure while monitoring ISM, CPI, and oil-price prints for tactical adjustments.