Wheat Trading Mixed on Friday Morning

Wheat futures are showing mixed performance across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis markets, with most contracts posting losses on Thursday before stabilizing Friday morning. Export Sales data revealed net reductions in old crop wheat but a marketing year high of 882,202 MT in new crop sales for 2025/26, driven by significant purchases from unknown destinations, the Philippines, and Japan. International Grains Council data projects stable world wheat output for 2025/26, while FranceAgriMer reported a slight decline in the good/excellent rating of the French wheat crop.

Analysis

The wheat market is demonstrating mixed price action, with Thursday's declines across most contracts, such as Chicago SRW futures falling 3 to 5 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat down 3 to 4 cents, transitioning to near-unchanged trading early Friday. A reduction in Chicago SRW preliminary open interest by 5,824 contracts suggests some position squaring. A significant highlight is the robust new crop export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which reached a high of 882,202 MT, contributing to the largest combined sales figure since December 2023; key buyers included unknown destinations, the Philippines, and Japan. This strong new crop demand starkly contrasts with net reductions of 13,373 MT in old crop sales. On the global supply front, the International Grains Council's forecast for 2025/26 indicates stable world wheat output at 806 MMT, with consumption revised down by 1 MMT, leading to a projected 2 MMT increase in ending stocks to 262 MMT. Adding a layer of concern, the condition of the French wheat crop has deteriorated, with FranceAgriMer reporting a drop in good/excellent ratings to 71% from 73% in the prior week, potentially tightening European supply. The market faces a holiday-shortened week with government reports delayed, likely influencing trading activity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely track the persistence of strong new crop export sales as a key demand indicator, particularly against the backdrop of old crop cancellations and a projected modest rise in global stocks.
• The decline in French wheat crop conditions should be monitored for its potential to tighten European supply and influence global wheat prices.
• Consider managing positions carefully ahead of the Memorial Day holiday and delayed government reports, as these factors could lead to increased market volatility upon resumption of full trading and data release.