AngloGold Ashanti vs. Newmont: Which Gold Mining Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The article highlights FY 2025 outperformance for AngloGold Ashanti (revenue $9.7B, +71% YoY; net income ~$2.6B, +160%) versus Newmont (revenue ~$22.7B, +21%; net income ~$7.1B; FCF ~$7.3B). With gold up from ~$2,000/oz to >$5,250/oz since early 2024, it projects continued earnings momentum in 2026 (AngloGold revenue +37% to $13.2B; Newmont revenue +25% to $28.3B). The piece argues valuation is lower for AngloGold (forward P/E 10.2x vs Newmont 9.4x; P/S 3.7x vs 4.1x) and favors AngloGold for income, citing a much higher forward dividend yield (5.7% vs 1.1%).

Analysis

This is less a clean “gold up = miners up” story than a dispersion trade inside the sector. With bullion already far above the marginal production cost curve, the market is paying more attention to who can protect returns if spot stalls: jurisdictional risk, reserve quality, and cost inflation matter more now than another quarter of headline revenue growth. On that basis, a richer yield screen for AU may be a trap if it reflects peak-cycle cash generation rather than durable payout capacity.

Over the next 1-3 months, the main catalysts are real rates, USD direction, and guidance updates. If gold remains elevated, both names can keep printing cash, but NEM’s scale and byproduct mix should make its earnings less brittle in a drawdown; AU should have more upside torque in a melt-up but also sharper downside if gold gives back 10-15%. The valuation spread does not look wide enough to fully pay for AU’s higher political and operating risk.

The contrarian miss is that this may be an income story only on the surface. In commodity equities, “yield” often compresses first when management chooses balance sheet repair or capex discipline, so headline payouts are a poor anchor for a 6-18 month holding period. Watch gold spot, US real yields, and any change in payout/buyback language as the key falsifiers; if gold breaks lower and dividend policy softens, AU should underperform faster than NEM.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 3-6 month pair trade: long NEM / short AU on any AU-led strength; target ~10-15% relative outperformance for NEM if gold consolidates, with a stop if gold re-accelerates above the recent highs and AU starts to compound FCF faster than expected.
• For directional gold exposure, prefer GLD or IAU over single-name miners unless the goal is beta plus operational torque; miners are now more sensitive to cost and policy noise than to small moves in spot.
• Use AU as a tactical long only on a pullback with a tight risk limit; the setup works best if gold holds above the recent support zone and management reaffirms payout durability, otherwise the high-yield thesis can unwind quickly.
• Monitor NEM/B headline flow as an event-driven alert rather than a base case trade: any escalation in the Nevada dispute is likely to hit sentiment in B first, but NEM may still be the cleaner relative long if the sector de-risks.