Boeing aims to certify 737 MAX variants by year-end, CEO tells Aviation Week

Boeing anticipates completing the certification of its 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants by the end of the year, according to CEO Kelly Ortberg, potentially unlocking deliveries for nearly 1,532 combined orders. However, United Airlines and Alaska Airlines have indicated they do not expect MAX 10 deliveries until 2027 and mid-2026, respectively. Ortberg also noted ongoing progress in certifying the 777-9, with deliveries expected to begin next year, despite the program facing delays since its initial 2020 target.

Analysis

Boeing's CEO Kelly Ortberg has articulated an ambitious target to complete certification for its 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants by the end of the current year, a development crucial for unlocking deliveries against a substantial backlog totaling nearly 1,532 aircraft, comprising approximately 1,200 orders for the MAX 10 and 332 for the MAX 7. This optimism, reflected in a slightly positive ticker sentiment for Boeing (0.3), is tempered by cautious delivery expectations from key customers: United Airlines projects not receiving MAX 10s until 2027 at the earliest, and Alaska Airlines anticipates deliveries no sooner than mid-2026, contributing to slightly negative sentiment for these airlines (-0.4 for both UAL and ALK). These discrepancies highlight a potential misalignment between the manufacturer's timeline and airline fleet planning, with delays partly attributed to engine de-icing system concerns. Concurrently, Boeing reports progress on certifying the 777-9, its largest jetliner with 419 orders, now anticipating initial deliveries next year—a significant deferral from the original 2020 target. The overall market sentiment regarding this news is mixed (0.0 sentiment score) with an anticipated moderate market impact (0.55 score), underscoring the persistent certification challenges against the backdrop of Boeing's critical product launches.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in Boeing should closely monitor the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 certification milestones throughout the remainder of the year, as successful and timely completion is pivotal for converting the significant backlog of nearly 1,532 aircraft into revenue, but should remain aware of the contrasting delivery timelines cited by major airline customers.
• For those invested in United Airlines and Alaska Airlines, the extended MAX 10 delivery forecasts (2027 and mid-2026 respectively) necessitate an evaluation of potential impacts on fleet renewal strategies, capacity deployment, and near-to-mid-term operational expenditures.
• Given Boeing's substantial order book for both the 737 MAX variants and the 777-9 (419 orders), achieving the revised certification and delivery timelines presents a considerable upside potential, though the persistent execution risks highlighted by past delays and current customer skepticism warrant careful consideration in investment theses.