The app that alerts you if smart glasses are close by

Market structure: Privacy backlash against smart glasses creates near-term winners in privacy tooling and specialist cybersecurity vendors (expect 5–15% incremental demand for proximity-detection apps and anti-surveillance devices over 3–12 months). Big-platform hardware sellers (META/Reality Labs) face reputational and adoption headwinds; hardware remains <10% of Meta’s revenue today, so direct revenue risk is moderate but could compress unit economics for AR hardware if adoption slows by >20% year/year.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include aggressive regulation (bans or strict consent rules) that could remove facial-recognition features or force expensive compliance — a high-impact scenario with 6–18 month litigation/regulatory timelines. Near-term (days–weeks) expect elevated PR-driven volatility; medium-term (3–9 months) regulatory hearings or NYT investigations can trigger re-rating; long-term (1–3 years) AR monetization could recover if Meta proves opt-in use cases.

Trade implications: Favor small-cap and software cybersecurity long exposure (CRWD, PANW, ZS) and tactical hedges against META via options (3–6 month put spreads 5–15% OTM sized to 0.5–2% portfolio). Consider a relative-value pair: long CrowdStrike (CRWD) 1–2% vs short META 0.5–1% using synthetics to limit financing cost; expect alpha if privacy spend re-allocates from platforms to endpoint/infra over 6–12 months.

Contrarian angles: Consensus overstates immediate damage to ad revenues — if AR features remain opt-in, Meta’s core ad business (>80% rev) is insulated, making deep short positions risky. Market may underprice regulatory timing; instead of outright short, prefer time-limited option hedges or pair trades that capture reallocation to security vendors while limiting tail loss if Meta weathers the cycle.