Is there a launch today? NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin launch schedule in Florida

Florida's Space Coast continues a high cadence of launches after a record 109 orbital missions in 2025; by the end of February 2026 fourteen rockets had already flown. The Cape Canaveral schedule through 2026 highlights near-term commercial missions (SpaceX Starlink launches and EchoStar XXV on March 4 and March 9), a Blue Origin New Glenn flight carrying AST SpaceMobile's Block 2 BlueBird (no earlier than March), and major program milestones including NASA's Artemis II (no earlier than April 1), Blue Moon Pathfinder (first half of 2026), Boeing Starliner-1 (uncrewed cargo, no earlier than April) and ULA-launched Dream Chaser (Q4 2026). Timelines are tentative and subject to change, with implications for contractors and commercial launch providers rather than immediate market-moving financial metrics.

Analysis

Market structure: High launch cadence (109 launches in 2025; 14 by Feb end) favors satellite operators and launch integrators with recurring manifests — direct beneficiaries include AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and EchoStar (SATS) as launch customers and SpaceX as low-cost rideshare provider. Increased capacity (Falcon 9 reuse + New Glenn/Vulcan coming online) will exert downward pressure on per-launch pricing: expect 5–15% pricing compression in commercial smallsat rideshare over 12–24 months, advantaging low-cost, high-utilization players.

Risk assessment: Tail risks are binary and large — a New Glenn/Block‑2 failure or a Starliner anomaly could wipe out 30–70% of near-term market value for the specific customer (ASTS) and trigger insurance claims, regulatory scrutiny, and contract re-pricing. Immediate (0–30 days) moves will be event-driven around scheduled launches; 3–12 months will reflect revenue realization/contract milestones; 1–3 years will show durable market-share shifts among launch providers.

Trade implications: Tactical long exposure to ASTS and modest long to SATS into their respective launch windows captures positive re-rating on successful insertion and demonstration; hedge with short-dated puts or buy-call spreads to cap downside around launch dates. For larger caps (BA), risk/reward is asymmetric: avoid fresh long exposure until Starliner‑1 completes validation or buy small protective put-spreads (6–12 month expiries) to hedge program execution risk.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underweights regulatory/spectrum value for ASTS — successful Block‑2 could unlock recurring service revenue vs one‑time satellite sales, implying upside >100% if service contracts follow. Conversely, markets may be overrating Blue Origin’s near-term cadence; persistent delays would accelerate consolidation toward SpaceX/ULA, creating consolidation opportunities in select launch-service suppliers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long in ASTS ahead of Blue Origin New Glenn-3 (No earlier than March); size as event-driven trade with hard stop at -30% and scale out to take-profit +100% if Block‑2 achieves successful insertion and ASTS announces service milestones within 90 days.
• Buy a 1–2% long position in SATS into the March 9 EchoStar XXV launch; use a 3-month call spread or purchase shares with a 20% stop-loss and target +25–35% on successful GEO insertion and positive telemetry within 30–90 days.
• Avoid new material longs in BA until Starliner‑1 completes its uncrewed validation. Deploy a 1% portfolio-sized 6–12 month put-spread on BA (protective hedge) to capitalize on downside if Starliner experiences delay/failure (>60 day slip triggers increase in hedge to 2%).
• Construct a relative-value pair: long ASTS (2%) vs short an aerospace small-cap ETF or BA (1%) to express block‑2 service upside vs OEM program execution risk; rebalance after launch results within 30–90 days.