Value Legend Bill Miller Just Bought Shares in These 2 Stocks

Bill Miller’s Miller Value Partners added Bloomin’ Brands and Crescent Energy to its Deep Value strategy in Q1, highlighting two discounted stocks tied to turnarounds and commodity strength. Bloomin’ trades around $6 and about 6x forward earnings, with management targeting a potential $500 million in adjusted EBITDA versus $270 million currently; Crescent is up 61% year to date and trades at 8x forward earnings. The piece is largely a value-investing commentary rather than a catalyst-driven market event.

Analysis

The common thread is not “cheapness” but balance-sheet optionality in names where positioning is already washed out. That matters because the next leg in both stories is likely driven by incremental fundamental inflection, not multiple expansion alone: for BLMN, a modest improvement in traffic or input-cost relief can produce outsized equity upside because the starting valuation is compressed and short interest/negative sentiment likely remain elevated. For CRGY, the market is effectively paying for current strip prices and discounting integration risk; if management continues to de-lever and take out costs, the equity can re-rate even without a new commodity high.

The second-order effect is that these are not the same trade structurally. BLMN is a longer-duration, catalyst-driven turnaround that probably needs 2-4 quarters of execution evidence before the market believes the EBITDA bridge; the risk is that weather, beef, and consumer trade-down headwinds keep same-store sales soft long enough to force another reset. CRGY is a shorter-duration energy beta with operational leverage to commodity prices and a cleaner near-term catalyst stack, but it is also more exposed to a reversal in crude/natural gas and to skepticism around acquisition-driven synergy capture. If energy prices stall, the stock likely de-rates faster than the underlying cash flow because the move has already been strong.

The contrarian read is that the market may be over-discounting BLMN’s survivability while underappreciating how much improvement a small operational turn can create from this base. Conversely, CRGY may be the more crowded of the two ideas given its recent run and the reflexive nature of energy sentiment; if the strip weakens, investors will quickly shift from ‘asset consolidation story’ to ‘levered commodity proxy.’ In that setting, the cleaner edge is to own the deep-discount turnaround with a longer runway and use energy strength to fade the crowded parts of the trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a starter long in BLMN over the next 1-2 weeks; size for 12-18 month hold, targeting a re-rating if EBITDA trends toward the company's turnaround target. Risk/reward is attractive because downside is anchored by liquidation-style valuation, while upside can compound from even modest margin recovery.
• Consider a tactical long CRGY only on pullbacks or after confirmation of continued commodity strength; use a 3-6 month horizon. The trade works if oil/gas remain supportive and management keeps reducing integration drag; trim aggressively if the strip weakens or the stock loses momentum.
• Pair trade: long BLMN / short a higher-quality consumer discretionary restaurant name as a relative-value expression of turnaround optionality versus full-priced quality. This isolates operating improvement and reduces beta to the broader consumer tape.
• For energy exposure, prefer a staggered entry in CRGY rather than chasing the recent move; if crude retraces meaningfully over the next 1-2 months, the stock could give back a disproportionate amount of gains due to leverage and sentiment.
• Avoid initiating shorts in either name purely on valuation alone; both are catalyst-driven, and crowded skepticism can persist longer than fundamentals. The better expression is to wait for execution gaps before fading.