This Nuclear Energy Stock Has Plunged 32%. Buy It Now Before It Sets a New All-Time High.

Centrus Energy (LEU) stock is down ~63% from its Oct 2025 all-time high of $464.25, after a mixed Q1 alongside concerns that a 2028 ban on Russian LEU imports could disrupt supply plans. In the quarter, EPS was $0.45 GAAP (vs $1.60 prior year, below estimates), but non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $1.05 vs $0.33 consensus; revenue rose 4.9% YoY to $76.7M and guidance was raised to $450M–$500M. The company also cites a $3.9B long-term order backlog through 2040 and a DOE HALEU contract worth up to $900M, partly offsetting near-term project/execution and uranium price volatility.

Analysis

LEU’s moat is real, but the market is still paying for a best-case policy outcome and near-flawless execution on a capital-intensive buildout. The key issue is not whether domestic HALEU matters; it is whether that scarcity converts into durable free cash flow before the valuation mean-reverts. The 2028 Russian-import backdrop is supportive only if U.S. supply can scale on schedule; otherwise it becomes a negotiating lever for government pricing rather than a pure margin tailwind.

OKLO is the cleaner second-order beneficiary. The supply agreement helps with bankability and de-risks one of the most common objections to advanced-reactor financing, but it does little for near-term estimates because deliveries are years out. Over the next 1-3 months, the real catalysts are permitting, utility partnerships, and capital-market access; if those slip, the whole advanced-nuclear complex likely de-rates together.

Contrarian view: the crowd is treating strategic relevance as if it were immediate earnings power. That disconnect matters when the stock already embeds a long runway of growth while the underlying revenue stream is still lumpy and policy-dependent. The thesis is most vulnerable if uranium/HALEU pricing softens or if expansion timelines slip; the thesis is most falsified by sustained beat-and-raise cadence plus accelerating FCF conversion, not by headline contract announcements.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid adding to LEU on strength; treat it as a valuation-sensitive policy asset, not a clean growth compounder. Reassess only if management shows clear free-cash-flow conversion and capex discipline over the next 1-2 quarters.
• Pair trade: long OKLO / short LEU for a 3-6 month relative-value expression. OKLO gets the benefit of fuel de-risking, while LEU carries the higher multiple and the most execution-risk if expansion delays surface. Cover the short if LEU raises guidance again or if the stock reclaims prior resistance on volume.
• If wanting broader nuclear exposure, prefer a basket via URA over single-name LEU. The basket reduces idiosyncratic execution risk while retaining upside to policy support; LEU is the name most exposed to multiple compression if the market stops paying for scarcity.