UnitedHealth stock price target raised to $365 from $310 at Truist Securities

Truist Securities has raised its price target for UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to $365 from $310, maintaining a Buy rating, primarily due to the company's favorable preliminary 2026 Star ratings which project 78% of Medicare Advantage membership in 4+ Star plans for Payment Year 2027. This positive outlook, an improvement from 2025 and consistent with management expectations despite industry volatility, underpins Truist's higher assumed multiple on 2027 EPS. Concurrently, UNH reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $16.00, inclusive of the modestly dilutive Amedisys acquisition, reinforcing the company's operational stability.

Analysis

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has received a significant vote of confidence from Truist Securities, which raised its price target to $365.00 from $310.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. The primary catalyst for this upgrade is the company's preliminary 2026 Star ratings data, which projects that approximately 78% of its Medicare Advantage membership will be enrolled in 4+ Star plans for the 2027 payment year. This figure represents a notable improvement from the estimated 70% for 2025 and is consistent with historical performance, signaling stability in a segment where the industry has faced significant ratings volatility. This operational strength underpins Truist's decision to apply a higher multiple to its 2027 EPS estimates. Further reinforcing this positive outlook, UnitedHealth reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $16.00. This guidance is inclusive of the recently completed Amedisys acquisition, which management notes will be modestly dilutive due to financing and integration costs. The consensus from other analysts is largely positive, with Barclays reiterating an Overweight rating, though TD Cowen maintains a more conservative Hold rating with a $275 price target. Trading at a 14.2x earnings multiple, the stock is viewed as attractively valued given its consistent execution and favorable regulatory positioning ahead of the official CMS ratings release in October.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the projected stability and improvement in Medicare Advantage Star ratings as a key differentiator for UNH, potentially justifying a premium valuation compared to peers facing greater regulatory headwinds.
• While the reaffirmed FY2025 EPS guidance of at least $16.00 provides a solid earnings floor, it is crucial to monitor the integration of Amedisys to ensure its 'modestly dilutive' impact remains within management's projections.
• The official release of CMS Star ratings in early October is a critical near-term catalyst; a confirmation of the company's 78% projection would validate the bullish thesis, whereas any negative deviation could introduce significant stock volatility.