Maison Pommery & Associés : Communiqué Financier - Chiffre d’affaires du 1er semestre 2026

Maison Pommery & Associés affiche un chiffre d’affaires consolidé de 95,7 M€ au S1 2026, en baisse vs 109,3 M€ au S1 2025 (-12,4% publié), principalement impacté par la cession de Heidsieck & Co Monopole (-9,6 M€) et la réduction des ventes interprofessionnelles (sans contribution à l’EBITDA, -4,5 M€). À périmètre comparable, le CA progresse légèrement de +0,6%, avec une hausse des Champagnes (+4,4% à périmètre comparable) et une dynamique portée par Champagne Pommery & Greno (+7,1%) ainsi que par le déploiement de Champagne Pompadour. Le groupe vise à maintenir cette dynamique au S2 2026 tout en poursuivant ses travaux de refinancement et les due diligences de Henkell International.

Analysis

This is less a revenue story than a quality-of-earnings and financing story. The mix is improving toward premium cuvées and away from low-return volume, which should help gross margin and working capital conversion even if headline sales stay choppy; that matters more for equity value than the modest top-line beat/flow-through. The market should read the France weakness as channel normalization, not demand collapse, because sell-out strength implies retail inventory is not bloated and the brand is still taking share at the shelf.

The second-order winner is the broader premium champagne cohort: houses with stronger brand equity and cleaner balance sheets should absorb any share migration from weaker portfolios and from sellers forced to de-emphasize low-EBITDA business. The loser is any supplier or peer dependent on broad, undifferentiated volume or on U.S. replenishment, where softness can persist for a couple of quarters if distributor inventories are being trimmed. The real competitive issue is that premiumization is becoming the only defensible growth lever, which raises the hurdle for lower-end labels and importers.

Catalyst risk sits in two buckets. Near term, the equity is hostage to refinancing progress and bank/Henkell diligence; if that stalls, operational improvement gets overwhelmed by dilution or covenant risk. Over 1-3 months, watch whether the premium launch actually converts into margin rather than just revenue; over 6-18 months, sustained Europe share gains could support a rerating if leverage is recapitalized on acceptable terms.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Watchlist, not a buy: POMRY until refinancing terms are disclosed. The risk/reward is unattractive pre-deal because the equity is more sensitive to dilution/covenant headlines than to modest operating improvement.
• Pair trade idea if borrow/liquidity allow: long Laurent-Perrier (LPE.PA) vs short POMRY for 1-3 months. Thesis: premiumization should accrue to cleaner balance sheets first, while POMRY remains capped by financing risk; ideal if the spread widens on any refinancing delay.
• If you want sector exposure, overweight premium champagne names over broad wine/spirits baskets. Use LPE.PA as the cleaner expression of premium mix expansion with less balance-sheet optionality.
• Set an alert on refinancing news over the next 30-60 days: a signed facility with limited dilution would force a reassessment and could justify a tactical long trade; absent that, any rallies should be treated as event-driven, not fundamental.
• Falsifier for the cautious stance: a sharper-than-expected second-half U.S. recovery or a materially better refinancing package. Either would justify covering any relative-value short and rotating toward a longer-duration long.