2 Space Stocks That Are Quietly Becoming Some of the Market's Best Opportunities

The article highlights AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab as two public space stocks with strong long-term upside, partly aided by renewed attention around the expected SpaceX IPO. AST SpaceMobile’s revenue rose from $4.4 million in 2024 to $70.9 million in 2025, with analyst forecasts calling for $777 million next year and EPS near $4 by 2029. Rocket Lab’s launch segment grew nearly 40% and space systems grew just over 34% last year, with analysts still expecting mid-double-digit sales growth.

Analysis

The market is likely to reward “picks-and-shovels” space exposure before it rewards the headline launch/IPO narrative. ASTS is the cleaner near-term monetization story because its value is tied to telecom distribution and spectrum-adjacent adoption, which can re-rate faster than launch economics if carrier tests convert into paid traffic. RKLB is more of a compounder: the multiple is already discounting durable growth, but the underappreciated lever is that space systems revenue is the higher-quality, lower-cyclicality engine, so each incremental backlog conversion should improve gross margin and de-risk the path to operating leverage.

Second-order winners sit in the carrier ecosystem. If ASTS gains credibility, the real option value accrues to partners like VZ, T, and VOD via improved rural coverage economics and lower capex per incremental subscriber, while legacy terrestrial tower and remote backhaul vendors face pressure on the most expensive coverage pockets. The SpaceX IPO also matters as a sentiment catalyst: it could lift the entire private-space valuation set, but that same enthusiasm can temporarily obscure execution risk and push public names into “story stock” territory faster than fundamentals justify.

The key risk is timeline mismatch. Revenue inflection may happen in months, but profitability still looks years away for both names, making them vulnerable to any slip in customer onboarding, regulatory approvals, launch cadence, or constellation deployment. The contrarian read is that the crowd may be underpricing how much of ASTS’s upside is already embedded in expectations for aggressive commercialization, while underpricing RKLB’s resilience if launch remains secondary and systems backlog continues compounding.

If the SpaceX IPO hits in the next 6-12 months, expect a sector-wide multiple expansion first, followed by sharp dispersion once investors refocus on execution. That creates a tactical window to own the stronger commercial-operating leverage story and fade the weaker balance-sheet / dilution profile if capital raises are needed to fund growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long ASTS vs. short a basket of low-quality space levered names for the next 3-6 months; thesis is that commercialization evidence, not launch hype, will drive relative outperformance. Size modestly because the stock can gap on contract/news flow.
• Add RKLB on pullbacks over the next 4-8 weeks; use it as a higher-quality way to express the space theme with better operational diversification. Risk/reward improves if valuation resets lower on any broad sector de-risking.
• Buy 6-12 month call spreads in ASTS rather than outright stock to capture a commercialization re-rate while capping downside from execution delays and financing risk.
• Watch VZ and T as secondary beneficiaries; if ASTS partnership milestones are confirmed, these names can see low-beta upside from improved network economics without needing a full space multiple re-rating.
• If SpaceX IPO timing becomes imminent, trim into the pre-IPO enthusiasm spike and avoid chasing the entire basket at peak sentiment; historically the first move is sentiment-driven, while the second move is fundamentals-driven.