
Remitly reported FY 2025 revenue of more than $1.6 billion, up about 29% year over year, with net income turning positive at $67.9 million and free cash flow of $295.7 million, though SBC equaled roughly 48% of operating cash flow. Visa posted FY 2025 revenue of $40.0 billion, net income of nearly $20.1 billion, and free cash flow of $21.6 billion, while also facing a $38 billion merchant swipe fee settlement and ongoing regulatory pressure. The article’s conclusion favors Visa over Remitly on the basis of lower forward P/E at 25.3x versus 31.8x and Visa’s superior scale, margins, and capital returns.
The market is likely underestimating the second-order effect of Visa’s scale: when a network with embedded merchant acceptance starts layering in stablecoin settlement and AI-enabled merchant tooling, it can defend take-rate even if regulatory pressure compresses headline fees. The real bull case is not transaction growth alone, but the ability to monetize adjacent services to a base that cannot easily rip-and-replace the network in the next 12-24 months.
Remitly’s upside is more reflexive but also more fragile. The key issue is that its growth premium depends on retaining low-friction access to third-party rails and maintaining compliant onboarding in corridors that are operationally sensitive; a single regulatory or processor setback could impair growth faster than the market expects. The near-term cash flow profile also looks less clean than the headline implies because SBC is still doing meaningful work in bridging the gap to profitability.
The contrarian angle is that the obvious quality/growth split may be too simple. Visa’s multiple can stay structurally supported if investors view it as a capital-light compounder with a second growth vector in value-added services, while Remitly may deserve a higher multiple only if execution proves it can scale beyond consumer remittances into adjacent flows without raising compliance costs. In that sense, the more interesting debate is not which is cheaper, but which business has more room to expand operating leverage without triggering a regulatory reset.
Watch the next 2-3 quarters for corridor expansion, processor reliability, and any changes in merchant-fee litigation cadence. Those are the points where consensus will either re-rate Visa as a durable infrastructure winner or de-rate Remitly as a high-growth niche player with hidden operational brittleness.
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