Forget SpaceX: These 2 Growth Stocks Are Better Buys

SpaceX is described as potentially going public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, or about 95x 2025 sales and possibly over 100x sales at debut, which the article calls grossly overvalued. The piece argues Broadcom and ASML are better AI-related alternatives, citing Broadcom’s AI chip sales up 65% to $20 billion in fiscal 2025 and expected to exceed $100 billion by fiscal 2027, while ASML is projected to grow revenue and EPS at 17% and 26% CAGRs through 2028. Overall, the article is a valuation-driven investment commentary rather than a market-moving catalyst.

Analysis

The market is using the IPO as a referendum on AI scarcity, but the more important signal is capital allocation discipline. When a pre-profit issuer prices at a multiple that implies perfection, it tends to pull duration-sensitive money out of the broader AI complex and into the closest liquid substitutes with actual cash conversion. That favors the “picks-and-shovels” layer—especially companies with pricing power, customer lock-in, and multi-year supply bottlenecks—over names whose upside is already being financed by narrative rather than earnings.

Broadcom and ASML are differentiated by second-order effects the market often underweights. Broadcom’s custom silicon mix matters because it reduces hyperscaler dependence on merchant GPU supply and improves buyer switching costs; that can sustain margin resilience even if AI capex growth normalizes. ASML is even cleaner: every incremental AI and memory node transition increases the strategic value of a near-monopoly toolset, which means any short-term delay in fabs ordering less EUV does not eliminate the multi-year demand wave, it mostly shifts revenue timing.

The contrarian angle is that the headline “overvaluation” in the IPO may not be the best short here if the stock is tightly allocated and commandingly oversubscribed; early trading could remain irrational for longer than fundamentals suggest. The better expression is relative value: fade the most expensive duration and own the enablers with visible backlog and secular pricing power. Nvidia is the subtle loser in the near term only if hyperscalers use custom ASICs to expand AI compute economics; that is a margin-compression story over years, not days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long AVGO vs short a basket of high-multiple AI beneficiaries for 3-6 months; thesis is relative multiple re-rating as custom ASIC adoption grows and cash flows become more visible.
• Add ASML on pullbacks over the next 1-3 weeks; use it as a core compounder with a 12-24 month horizon, since AI/foundry capex and EUV scarcity support pricing power.
• Maintain a tactical underweight in NVDA for 6-12 months versus AVGO/ASML; risk is that GPU demand re-accelerates faster than hyperscaler ASIC penetration, so keep sizing modest.
• If the IPO is tradable after lock-up/price discovery, consider a short or put spread only on post-IPO strength, not at debut; best risk/reward is after the first wave of momentum buyers exhausts itself.
• Use AVGO/ASML as the preferred way to own AI infrastructure exposure rather than speculative IPO exposure; better downside capture if AI spend pauses, because both names monetize the supply chain rather than sentiment.