The Outlook For S&P 500 Dividends In September 2025

Expectations for S&P 500 dividends, based on CME Group futures data updated through September 15, 2025, show mixed revisions for 2025 but an upward trend for early 2026. Specifically, 2025-Q3 dividends were revised down by $0.17 to $19.64 per share, while 2025-Q4 saw a minor increase of $0.03 to $19.88. More significantly, 2026-Q1 dividend expectations rose by $0.20 to $20.94 per share, representing a projected 3% year-over-year increase, providing key forward-looking insights into equity income trends.

Analysis

Forward-looking expectations for S&P 500 dividends, as indicated by CME Group's dividend futures data on September 15, 2025, present a mixed near-term signal but a strengthening outlook into early 2026. The forecast for the current quarter, 2025-Q3, has been revised downward by $0.17 to $19.64 per share since mid-August, indicating a softening of immediate expectations. This is partially offset by a minor upward revision for 2025-Q4, which rose by $0.03 to $19.88 per share. More significantly, the outlook for 2026-Q1 has improved, with expected dividends increasing by $0.20 to $20.94 per share. This 2026-Q1 projection represents a 3% year-over-year increase from the finalized $20.33 per share in 2025-Q1, suggesting a return to a modest growth trajectory for aggregate dividend payouts. It is important to note these figures are derived from futures contracts with specific expiration schedules, which differ from S&P's official calendar quarter reporting and can lead to variations, particularly in Q1 and Q4.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the downward revision in Q3 2025 dividend futures as a sign of near-term uncertainty, while the positive revisions for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 suggest this may be a temporary adjustment rather than the start of a negative trend.
• The projected 3% year-over-year dividend growth for Q1 2026 provides a supportive data point for equity-income strategies and a constructive view on underlying corporate health heading into the new year.
• When updating valuation models, it is crucial to use this CME futures data as a forward-looking indicator of market expectations, but remain aware that its timing methodology differs from official S&P calendar quarter reports, which can impact cash flow modeling.