Torrid Holdings (CURV) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Torrid Holdings (CURV) is anticipated to report Q2 2025 earnings of $0.04 per share, a 50% year-over-year decline, on projected revenues of $259.59 million, down 8.8%. Despite the expected declines, the consensus EPS estimate has seen a 20% upward revision in the last 30 days. Bolstered by a significant Zacks Earnings ESP of +71.43% and a Zacks Rank #2, Torrid is strongly positioned to beat consensus EPS estimates, indicating a potential positive stock price reaction following its September 4 earnings release.

Analysis

Torrid Holdings (CURV) is poised for a potential positive earnings surprise for the quarter ending July 2025, despite a challenging fundamental backdrop. Consensus estimates project significant year-over-year declines, with revenues expected to fall 8.8% to $259.59 million and earnings per share (EPS) to decrease by 50% to $0.04. However, forward-looking indicators suggest these estimates may be too conservative. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 20% over the last 30 days, signaling growing analyst optimism. This is further substantiated by a very strong Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +71.43%, which, combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), indicates a high statistical probability of an EPS beat. The company's history of surpassing estimates in three of the last four quarters adds credibility to this short-term bullish thesis. While the headline numbers are weak, the setup for a beat on lowered expectations is compelling, though the stock's ultimate trajectory will depend on management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong quantitative signals, including a +71.43% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #2, investors could consider a tactical long position in CURV ahead of the September 4th earnings report to capitalize on a likely EPS beat.
• The primary risk is a negative stock reaction to weak forward guidance, even with an earnings beat; therefore, it is critical to scrutinize management's commentary on future revenue trends and margin outlook to assess the sustainability of any post-earnings move.
• Investors should note the significant underlying decline in projected year-over-year revenue and earnings, treating any position as a short-term trade on the surprise factor rather than a long-term fundamental investment until management provides a clear path back to growth.