Corn Post Mixed Thursday Close

Corn futures traded mixed Thursday, with July contracts gaining 2 cents while other contracts declined 1 to 3 cents. Weekly export sales reached 1.19 MMT, exceeding expectations, driven by purchases from Japan, Mexico, and Colombia; new crop sales also surpassed forecasts at 218,371 MT. The International Grains Council projects a 3 MMT increase in world corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year, raising stocks to 284 MMT.

Analysis

Corn futures presented a mixed trading session, with the nearby July contract advancing by 2 cents to close at $4.63, while deferred contracts, such as September 2025 and December 2025, declined by 1 3/4 cents and 2 1/4 cents respectively. The front month national average cash corn price increased by 2 1/2 cents to $4.36 1/4, contrasting with new crop cash prices which fell by 2 cents to $4.12 5/8. The U.S. Export Sales report indicated 1.19 million metric tons (MMT) of corn sold during the week of May 15, a figure falling within market expectations of 0.7 to 1.6 MMT. Although this volume was 29% lower than the preceding week, it represented a substantial 30.7% year-over-year increase, with Japan (370,900 MT), Mexico (219,300 MT), and Colombia (153,100 MT) as principal importers. New crop sales were also solid at 218,371 MT, within the forecast range of 50,000 to 500,000 MT, driven by purchases from Colombia and Costa Rica. However, providing a counterpoint to current demand, the International Grains Council (IGC) revised its projections for the 2025/26 marketing year, anticipating a 3 MMT rise in world corn production and a corresponding 3 MMT increase in global stocks to 284 MMT. This forecast for amplified future supply likely weighed on the deferred contracts, creating a divergence with the more supported nearby prices.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should carefully weigh the current strength in export sales, particularly the year-over-year increase, against the International Grains Council's forecast for higher global production and stocks in 2025/26, which presents a mixed fundamental outlook.
• The divergence between the firmer nearby July contract and weaker deferred contracts could offer calendar spread opportunities or signal caution for long-term bullish positions pending further supply developments.
• Monitor upcoming weather patterns and subsequent export sales reports closely, as these will be critical in determining whether current demand can absorb the anticipated increase in global supply, especially for new crop pricing.