Bitcoin remains in a bear phase since October 2025, but the article argues a supply-driven setup is building: long-term holders increased to 16.7M BTC held for 155+ days (vs 13.7M at the same point in 2020) and the April 2028 halving should cut new issuance by another 50%, tightening the float. It also flags a major tail risk from quantum computing—potentially within ~5 years—capable of breaking BTC encryption, which could cause severe drawdowns until upgrades address the threat. The piece expects a next bull-market window after September 2026 and potentially peaks in 2029, with speculative peak price estimates of ~$300k–$800k per BTC.
The tradable signal is less about the eventual upside path and more about what happens to leverage in the meantime. Bitcoin’s float is getting tighter, but that tends to matter only once liquidity turns supportive; until then, BTC is still a macro-risk asset whose beta is dominated by real rates, USD strength, and ETF flow elasticity. That makes spot BTC a lower-Sharpe expression than the equities most exposed to reflexive financing and mining economics. The underappreciated loser is the high-cost miner stack and treasury-levered small caps: when the next leg higher eventually arrives, they may lag if capital markets stay closed or if hash-rate growth forces dilution/capex ahead of revenue. By contrast, custodians/exchanges and brokers with transaction-linked revenue can benefit earlier from volatility and repositioning, even before a durable bull market starts. The quantum angle is not a near-term price-killer for BTC, but it is a credible catalyst for volatility if it causes custody, wallet, and regulatory scrutiny to tighten faster than expected. Contrarian take: the market is likely overestimating how immediately the quantum narrative matters for price, but underestimating how it could change the winner set inside crypto. A real quantum scare would punish lightly capitalized miners and accelerate concentration toward the best-capitalized custodial platforms; if that scenario develops, the first reaction is likely a de-risking of the whole crypto beta complex, not a clean rotation into "quantum winners."
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