Michael Burry says he's tempted to bet against SpaceX, but passes on expensive options

Michael Burry said he has no position in SpaceX and passed on bearish put options that he judged too expensive, with contracts quoted at about $25 for a December 2028 $100 strike, $13 for June 2027, and $6.75 for December 2026. He also questioned SpaceX's nearly $3 trillion valuation versus less than $20 billion in annual revenue, comparing the business mix to launch services, satellite internet and social media. The piece is more a valuation and positioning commentary than a direct trading catalyst, though it reinforces caution around high-multiple technology and private-market names.

Analysis

The immediate signal is not a clean bearish read on SpaceX so much as a warning that the short side is crowded into a structurally expensive structure. When downside convexity is this rich, the market is effectively telling you that implied distribution still carries tail risk of another upside repricing, which makes outright put buying a poor expectancy trade unless you have a near-term catalyst. In other words, even skeptics are being forced to express their view through timing and volatility, not valuation alone.

The second-order issue is that a premium private-market print can lift the entire late-stage growth complex by association. If investors start using SpaceX as a benchmark for frontier-tech optionality, it can re-rate adjacent baskets: defense/space suppliers, satellite infrastructure, launch-adjacent software, and any private AI/infra name with a scarcity premium. That said, the flip side is that a visible multiple reset in one trophy asset can quickly propagate to other private marks, especially funds with concentrated crossover exposure and quarterly liquidity pressure.

For public markets, the more interesting trade is not a direct SpaceX proxy but the broader valuation regime. This reinforces the idea that the market is rewarding perceived monopolistic optionality and punishing fundamentals that cannot articulate a long-duration TAM story, which keeps pressure on high-multiple AI and venture-backed software names. BRK.B is relevant mainly as a psychological anchor: if investors are willing to assign a higher equity value to a pre-profit, capital-intensive platform than to a durable capital allocator, that is a sign sentiment has outrun cash-flow discipline.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid long-dated put premium on SpaceX proxies; if expressing a bearish view, use defined-risk put spreads 6-12 months out rather than outright puts to reduce theta bleed in an expensive vol regime.
• Use any further rally in high-multiple AI/venture baskets to trim exposure; pair a short in unprofitable growth against a long in cash-generative quality to isolate multiple compression risk over the next 1-3 months.
• Watch BRK.B as a relative-value barometer: if speculative private-market marks keep levitating while BRK.B lags, consider a tactical long BRK.B / short high-duration growth pair for 1-2 quarters.
• For investors wanting upside optionality on the theme, prefer long calls on listed satellite/space supply-chain names over direct SpaceX bearish bets; the second-order beneficiaries can re-rate without needing a correction in the private asset.
• Set a trigger to reassess if implied vol in SpaceX-linked derivatives falls materially over the next 30-60 days; that would be the first sign that consensus is losing fear and put spreads become more attractive.